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"Greece can she leave the euro area?

"What is the role of rating agencies?

"Greece can go bankrupt?

"Is there a risk of contagion to the rest of the euro area?

"What risks for European banks?

"Why do they attack the markets as Portugal?

"Does France have any reason to worry?

• Greece can she leave the euro area?

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The want it – despite the financial risks – Greece would have the greatest difficulty to get out of the eurozone for legal reasons. If a Member State may be expelled from the EU if it no longer meets the political criteria, this option is not provided by the Treaties for the euro area. This legal vacuum is subject to interpretation."It is inconceivable that a Member State legally so the euro area without retiring in parallel with the European Union," says Phoebus Athanassiou, legal adviser to the ECB. As for expulsion from the monetary union, it would be "virtually impossible from a legal standpoint, because it would amend the treaties unanimously, says he, in a research note. Angela Merkel had called in March to exclude the possibility of a country does not fulfill the conditions of membership of the single currency. Without revising the treaties, the option of expulsion would be "perhaps achievable through the back door" by establishing a de facto monetary union with two speeds. The emerging countries could keep the euro as parallel currency.But it is more of a possibility is more theoretical than practical, as the hazards are many.

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• What is the role of rating agencies?

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Rating agencies – the number three in the world – are private and independent agencies that assign a score to countries or financial companies. Investors rely on this note to know the risk level of bonds they buy. Each agency to its own methodology. Standard & Poor's, for example, attributes the "AAA" rating to the best transmitters, then descends to "AA" and "A" and "BBB". Each time, these notes are accompanied by signs + or -.Then, the notes come down to "BB" and are then considered to reflect the level of obligations "rotten" … In general, the rating reflects the percentage probability that the issuer will default. Thus, an issuer rated triple AAA, like France, has 0% chance to fail in three years. An issuer 'BB', as is now Greece, 23.08% to fail within three years.

• Greece can go bankrupt?

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Photo credits: AFP

After the Athens Stock Exchange, the Portuguese market in turn undergoes the wrath of investors. On Wednesday, the Lisbon Stock Exchange appears in sharp decline. Around 11:00, Paris time, the flagship index of the Portuguese market, the PSI 20, plaice and 5.77% at 6740.38 points. This drop comes sanction decision by Standard & Poor's yesterday, degrade debt rating Portuguese, from A + to A-.

The rating agency also downgraded the debt rating Greek, she now sees as speculative ("junk bunds). As listed in the category BB + BBB + cons before, government debt is regarded as far more risky than that of Portugal, due to repayment capacity considered more tenuous. Yet the Greek market oscillates around equilibrium Wednesday morning.The main index of the Athens Stock Exchange, the FTSE / 20 Athex back slightly after gaining 0.76% to 828.63 points.According to a financial analyst in Paris, several factors explain this calm in Athens.

Psychological and mechanical effects

Investors see some first as the next allocation of aid to Greece, which should cover $ 45 billion or 55 billion, the International Monetary Fund considering to extend its contribution of 10 billion dollars, according The Financial Times.

Furthermore, "prohibiting short selling in the Greek market this morning can also cause a mechanical increase in the index, investors who are forced to buy back their positions," says financial analyst, who notes that " the Greek market has largely underperformed the European markets for several weeks. "

He also whispers in the trading rooms that some operators is positioning itself to try to take advantage of the situation.Thus, "banks can now arbitrage, borrowing from the European Central Bank (ECB) at very low rates, around 0.5%, and buying bonds Greek very profitable." The rate of Greek bonds to ten years continues to rise: it exceeded 11.076% on Wednesday morning. Until then, long yields a euro-zone countries had never exceeded the threshold of 10%.

All European markets tremble

Greece and Portugal are not the only country to see them off the gap between the rate of return on their bond and a risk free loan for the same period. Spreads of Iceland, Spain and also France's rise. In other words, investors' doubts about the creditworthiness of these borrowers are continuing to strengthen.

This lack of trust leads the major indices falling everywhere in Europe.Around 11:30 am Spanish IGBM fell by 3.41% to 1047.61 points. The German Dax drops 1.97% to 6038.22 points. In London, the FT100 was down 1.05% to 5544.91 points. In Paris, finally, the Cac 40 2.28% yield and password below 3800 points to 3757.10 points.

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They had first announced, they did. On the occasion of the Auto Show that was held last March in Geneva, PSA and Mitsubishi have confirmed that they would continue their industrial cooperation, aun when they abandoned their capital project alliance. On Tuesday, on the sidelines of the results of Mitsubishi, the two automakers announced they would jointly develop a compact 4×4 model, which will be marketed in Europe in 2012.

This vehicle is available in four-wheel and two wheel drive, and will be based on an existing model from Mitsubishi, RVR known in Japan and ASX in Europe, which will be suitable for Peugeot and Citroen brands, say the two groups said in a statement. Finally, the vehicle will be equipped with a diesel 1.6 Di Peugeot Citroen.50,000 vehicles per year and brand should be built.

The statement said that it is the fourth cooperation between PSA and Mitsubishi, after the agreement on the manufacture of all-terrain vehicles and electric, and the inauguration of a joint plant in Russia.

Mitsubishi also presented its annual results this morning. The Japanese carmaker is ironed green during the 2009-2010 fiscal year completed in late March, registering a net profit of 4.7 billion yen, or 36 million euros. It provides an increase of 31.4% of its turnover for 2010-2011.

The De Beers diamond bet on a shortage of diamonds in the long term. To prolong the life of its mines, therefore he wants to reduce its production. Such a decision could have an immediate impact on prices, with an increase of 5% according to some analysts, De Beers alone representing 40% of sales of rough diamonds throughout the world.

The world provides a stabilization of its production to 40 million carats in the next two years, against 48 million carats in 2008.The predicted shortage should be accelerated by new demand from Asian countries, including China, where these stones are very popular online cash advance.

In twenty years, no site has been discovered that can compete with the mines operated by De Beers in South Africa or that of Alrosa in Russia.

After a difficult 2009 which resulted in losses, the diamond table on profits this year, and until 2014. Some analysts see the move as a preamble to a re-IPO of the group.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Wednesday nudged up its forecast for global growth but said the risks to the recovery, particularly the developed countries' public debt and imbalances in capital flows. In fact, the institution has maintained its growth forecast for the eurozone to 1% in 2010, while stressing the fragility of the recovery against the risk of the Greek budget crisis and its possible contagion effects.

In its "World Economic Outlook, the IMF now expects growth of 4.2% against 3.9% estimated in January. The forecast of +4.3% for 2011 is unchanged. In 2009, world GDP had declined by 0.6%.

"The recovery of the global economy has developed better than expected," said Fund."The activity recovers at different rates, timidly in many advanced countries, but strong in most emerging and developing," he noted.

Growth will be slower in Europe (1% in the euro area, 1.3% in the United Kingdom) and Japan (1.9%). It would be higher in contrast to the United States (3.1%). But it would mainly driven by emerging markets and developing countries (6.3%), the Asia head (8.7%, 10% for China).

In this context, the IMF expressed concern about the impact on capital flows."Estimates of IMF economists show that current account imbalances will increase significantly with the resumption of world trade, improving financial conditions and the stabilization of commodity prices at higher levels," said the institution No fax pay day loan.

"The currencies of a number of Asian economies remain undervalued in significant proportions in the case of the yuan, while the dollar and the euro remained strong over the medium term fundamentals," said the IMF.

In addition, the Fund insisted on another risk to global growth, the swelling public debt of developed countries.

While advising maintain expansionary policies in 2010, he believes that "many of these countries must also take urgent credible medium-term strategies to reduce public debt and then back to more conservative levels ."The risks associated with foreign states may depress the activity for a variety of reasons," noted the IMF.

"The high ratios of debt (relative to GDP, ie) would hinder budgetary flexibility, lead to higher interest rates in the general economy, increase the vulnerability of economies budgetary difficulties, and compressing the growth," he listed.

Finally, the Fund has called on governments to "repair and reform the financial sector, to end the gaps in regulation, and to" support the creation of jobs and the unemployed, the unemployment rate to remain at around 8.5% in developed countries until the end of 2011.

"Dust volcanic paralysis airport dangerous for the economy." The Confederation of Small and Medium Enterprises (CGPME) became concerned Monday that could have consequences for European sky empty of planes. Dramatization? CGPME quick to point out a little further in his text that only SMEs "whose activity is immediately dependent on air transport" are currently affected.

If paralysis continues, the slow recovery of the economy will she threatened? "If this situation persists, all French SMEs encounter difficulties," worries CGPME. Everything depends on the duration of the flight ban imposed much of European airspace. "The problem is simple: the shock will be there temporarily or not?" Says Philippe Waechter, head of economic research at Natixis."For now, all this is annoying but does not call into question the economic recovery."

"A crisis of this type can be analyzed as attacks or an outbreak, however, significant events that have little overall economic impacts," said Nicolas Bouzou for its part, an economist at Aster. Especially since the paralysis of European airspace should not have a huge impact on trade between Europe and the rest of the world, according to the Economist: "80% of goods moved by boat. And the businessmen will still meet in videoconferencing payday loan instant. "

Attacks and pandemic

The situation is somewhat reminiscent of the paralysis attacks of Sept. 11, which at the time, had greatly affected the airline."This event has changed the behavior vis-?-vis the air, but the current environment is extremely different," relativize Philippe Waechter. "Today, if the ban is lifted, all restarts as before." September 11 has also not necessarily have any impact on the economy, beyond transport. "It is very difficult to detect traces of attacks on the World Trade Center on economic growth," said Nicolas Bouzou.

More recently, influenza H1N1 has raised fears the worst. Especially because of the flight ban could be decided to limit the spread of the virus. The worst-case scenarios developed while anticipating a decline in U.S. GDP by 1.5% year over year. Impact due to paralysis of all types of transport, the cancellation of sporting and cultural events and absenteeism rates of about 30 to 40% in companies.In comparison, the ash cloud would block more than 150,000 French nationals abroad. For a limited time.

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STOCK markets take a breather. In Paris the CAC 40 tumbled 1.94%, to finish the session in 4000 exactly 3 points at 986.63 points. The announcement of action against the U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs has literally showered the markets.

The indices that had evolved sawtooth most of the day were immediately plunged. Almost everywhere, investors chose to pocket their gains on the values that have risen more. In London, the FTSE fell 1.39% and in Frankfurt the Dax dropped 1.76%.

Wall Street had previously lined up six sessions was washed away.Shortly before the close of European stock exchanges, the Dow Jones slid 0.51% and the Nasdaq by 0.76%.

Goldman Sachs Sticky

The U.S. stock market watchdog, the SEC announced Friday it was suing the U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs to "fraud" on the sale of investment securities linked to subprime mortgages, called "subprime" ( see also page 21). The good news continued to flow as the business side as the economy fell into the background. Thus, the highly anticipated conglomerate General Electric, as well as those of Bank of America, the Internet giant Google, the specialist of AMD microprocessors, or the toy maker Mattel has exceeded all expectations.

Good news also on the side of macroeconomic indicators in the United States.Housing starts housing as the number of building permits issued rose more than expected in February. In Europe, the public debt remains a central concern. Greece announced Friday its intention to raise 1.5 billion euros in Treasury bills. Tuesday an initial public offering had already helped to raise 1.56 billion euros. The announcement comes as the Europeans and the IMF are finalizing the program of aid to Greece. Finance ministers from the euro zone met in Madrid on Friday for an update on the crisis in Greece. And a new mission of the IMF and the European Commission is expected in Athens on Monday.

lefigaro.fr / jdf.com: carbon tax rejected, disagreements at the Copenhagen summit. These events would not they have a negative impact on Socially Responsible Investment (SRI)?

Alain Zeitouni: I think, however, that these cons-time advocate of SRI. They illustrate the inability of states to agree on what policy to adopt and highlight companies that have a real socially responsible approach. Investing in SRI is an investment in a well-run company with good governance and employability positive and more likely to see its share price appreciate.

AFG (French Association of Financial Management) will also require management companies by July 31, a code of ethics which they must answer a series of questions about their SRI policy.Management companies will therefore have an obligation to be transparent with investors in our case, we will put this code available to our customers on our website.

Why did you choose the multi *? How do you reconcile with SRI?

As a society, we believe it is more appropriate to rely on several topics related to SRI, rather than a team with SRI extra-financial analysis.It is well known that our SRI funds Alphastar Barclays profit pricing that allows investors to actively contribute to social awareness, with 20% management fee will be donated to support local civic projects through our structure Barclays Solidarity.

SRI funds are they more efficient than conventional investments?

It is difficult to measure but what is certain is that SRI is more resistant in the phases of market correction and presents a more defensive profile, if uptrend. In other words, there is an outperformance in the market phases. SRI is not a barrier to the market performance. Instead, he must give value added to the fund compared to a traditional investment.The management team should also bring in funds through the performance of traditional criteria such as the revaluation of securities and its prospects.

How do you select your values?

Our management approach is based on a "best in class", that is to say that we select the best titles in their class, whatever the category. In other words, we do not exclude sectors that initially do not appear to be consistent with the ISR, such as the automotive and oil industries, for example.

While values have a real socially responsible approach, we keep them. For example, some car values are investing heavily in R & D to reduce pollution from their vehicles or oil stocks investing in renewable energy. The purpose of a product is primarily SRI performance.We believe it is unnecessary to have a debate about whether a particular value or not SRI.

Why is it your portfolio as concentrated (Barclays Alphastar SRI consists of 13 funds, Ed)?

Our portfolio consists of only 13 funds, because we were not convinced of the other approaches SRI funds, and we believe this issue to make it more readable, it is not necessary to invest in more funds . Accordingly, we are heavily invested on each line, because we have strong convictions on certain themes (sustainable development, corporate governance) that we identify as a source of added value.

Amund and Natixis are historical actors of SRI investing in this topic for many years. They have a database of the oldest of the place.We also returned UFG shares Sarasin Euro Mid-Caps, while our investment universe is large caps. The idea is to identify mid-cap stocks that are concerned with the theme of SRI, but that hardly communicate, because they do not face the same pressure as the major media values.

What is the performance of your fund?

Our fund outperformed the MSCI Europe since its creation of 1.5 basis points (-19.18% against 20.73%) and the underperformed since the beginning of the year (2.98% against 3 57%). This reflects the fact that our portfolio is too concentrated on European values. Because of the difficulties of Greece, the euro has sharply d?sappr?ci? and our portfolio with him. Thus, more than one reason for the market for a reason related to the SRI we underestimate performons index.We therefore decided to refocus on Europe in integrating the England and Switzerland in our portfolio.

That is why we returned OFI leader who is a fund invested in European companies considered in a leadership role within their industry and their competitive universe. We also selected HS Europe, which is invested in European companies also meeting the constraints on environmental, social ethics and governance. We believe that given the pressures on the euro, the single currency will continue to depreciate.

* Multi-management is a technique that selects the most experienced managers and more effective and provide access to larger customer base through a single medium (CPF unit trust or life insurance contract).

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Wall Street starts the week with stability: the Dow Jones is quasi-equilibrium (+0.03%) in the first exchanges, the Nasdaq also (+0.06%). few minutes after the bell, the indices are moving a bit better: to 15.45, the Dox Jones up 0.17% at 11,016 points and the Nasdaq is 0.21%, to 2459 points. The S & P 500 wins he, 0.28%, to 1198 points.

The Nikkei closed up 0.42% to 11251.90 Monday lmatin points, supported by positive indicators published this weekend in the United States and by higher metal prices that has benefited the trading companies.

The U.S. stock markets have recently experienced six consecutive weeks of increases, an unprecedented series from the lowest 12 years and a half touchdowns in March 2009.On Friday, the Dow briefly crossed into the symbolic meeting of 11 000 points to finish at a cable that level at precisely 10 997.35 points. For its part, the Standard & Poor's 500 took 0.67% to 1 194.37 points and the Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 0.71% to 2454.05 points. Since its low point of March 9, 2009, the S & P 500 has now increased by 75%.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro is rising against the dollar this morning after the announcement yesterday by the countries of the eurozone plan the details of aid to Greece.The European currency was trading at just below $ 1.37.

Indicators to monitor

On the macroeconomic front, the week will be marked by several important indicators, as the index of consumer prices, retail sales for the month of March, industrial production, housing starts and the first estimate of the confidence index Reuters / Michigan.

The markets will also follow the hearing of Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, the Congressional Joint Economic Committee on Wednesday and will monitor closely developments in the case of the Greek debt.

Alcoa will open the show publications

The week will be decisive for the U.S. markets. Investors will receive the first quarterly results of major listed companies.As usual, the aluminum giant Alcoa will kick off the season of publications, on Monday after the close of Wall Street. Analysts expected a return to profit, its first since a year.

Meanwhile, Alcoa shares are 1.53%, to 14.62 dollars.

The coming week will also be driven by quarterly results from Intel, Google, General Electric and JPMorgan Chase & Co. banks among others.

On the side of values, the oil industry runs the meeting. Friday Chevron (0.74%, to 80.1 dollars), without giving a figure, has announced an increase its refining margins in the first quarter. The group takes advantage of the rising oil prices and a possible improvement in its refining margins.The major U.S. must publish its accounts on April 30.

According to the press, the merger between United Airlines and U.S. Airways (2.73%, to 7.52 dollars) should be performed exclusively by exchange of shares.

The green color should still be the day the Paris Bourse. Comforted by the end of the Japanese Nikkei up on Monday, the CAC 40 should continue its momentum on Friday. The key index in Paris had ended the week up almost 2%, surpassing the 4000 points to 4050 points.

Investors should be reassured by Parisian rescue plan with Greek details, as expected, were finally unveiled this weekend. The European system, operational since Sunday, includes up to 30 billion euros in loan agreements with joint assistance from the IMF. The new fact in any case already boosted the euro. In morning trading, the euro is worth 1.3675 dollars, up 0.12% against the greenback.

On the face of macroeconomic indicators, no news likely to react to the markets is expected.Important data such as current accounts or French industrial production in the euro area, will in the coming days.

However, the quarterly publications begin Monday in France and the U.S. cash till payday. Intel, Google, Bank of America, or General Electric are expected across the Atlantic this week. The France oversee Alcoa or Atos Origin.

Values follow

In an interview with the Journal du Dimanche, the chief executive of Publicis said this weekend that the advertising investment is not expected to regain its 2008 levels by 2012.The latter also expressed readiness to re-evaluate its offer for the advertising of France Televisions, if the advertising was finally upheld.

France Telecom is in difficulty in Egypt where a court on Saturday confirmed its decision to block the bid from France Telecom on the minority of ECMS, the first mobile operator in terms of number of subscribers.

According to sources close to the deal, EADS will unveil its position on a possible bid to tender for the supply of tanker aircraft to the U.S. Air Force.

Alcoa publishes figures for its first quarter after market close in New York.