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"Greece can she leave the euro area?

"What is the role of rating agencies?

"Greece can go bankrupt?

"Is there a risk of contagion to the rest of the euro area?

"What risks for European banks?

"Why do they attack the markets as Portugal?

"Does France have any reason to worry?

• Greece can she leave the euro area?

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The want it – despite the financial risks – Greece would have the greatest difficulty to get out of the eurozone for legal reasons. If a Member State may be expelled from the EU if it no longer meets the political criteria, this option is not provided by the Treaties for the euro area. This legal vacuum is subject to interpretation."It is inconceivable that a Member State legally so the euro area without retiring in parallel with the European Union," says Phoebus Athanassiou, legal adviser to the ECB. As for expulsion from the monetary union, it would be "virtually impossible from a legal standpoint, because it would amend the treaties unanimously, says he, in a research note. Angela Merkel had called in March to exclude the possibility of a country does not fulfill the conditions of membership of the single currency. Without revising the treaties, the option of expulsion would be "perhaps achievable through the back door" by establishing a de facto monetary union with two speeds. The emerging countries could keep the euro as parallel currency.But it is more of a possibility is more theoretical than practical, as the hazards are many.

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• What is the role of rating agencies?

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Rating agencies – the number three in the world – are private and independent agencies that assign a score to countries or financial companies. Investors rely on this note to know the risk level of bonds they buy. Each agency to its own methodology. Standard & Poor's, for example, attributes the "AAA" rating to the best transmitters, then descends to "AA" and "A" and "BBB". Each time, these notes are accompanied by signs + or -.Then, the notes come down to "BB" and are then considered to reflect the level of obligations "rotten" … In general, the rating reflects the percentage probability that the issuer will default. Thus, an issuer rated triple AAA, like France, has 0% chance to fail in three years. An issuer 'BB', as is now Greece, 23.08% to fail within three years.

• Greece can go bankrupt?

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Photo credits: AFP

After limited Wednesday its losses due to degradation of the note of Portugal by U.S. rating agency Fitch, the CAC 40 remains virtually unchanged, with the Opening index in Paris gained 0.05% to 3951 points. Thursday and Friday, will take effect in the European Council in Brussels. Support measures to Greece are expected, involving the IMF and covering several tens of billions of euros.The stock exchanges in London and Frankfurt also opened small increase respectively from 0.07% to 5682 points and 0.08% at 6043 points.

The program also published a series of U.S. data – weeks claimed Thursday to 13 hours, and a third estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2009 Friday at 13.30 – and the presentation from 9 hours by Jean-Claude Trichet's annual report the European Central Bank before the European Parliament.

The bank in a disorganized

As for values, the series of publications is nearing completion. Thursday, Hermes has released a turnover up 8.5% to 1.9 billion euros, while earnings fell slightly (-0.5%) to 290.2 million euros.Shortly after opening, shares Hermes show a net decline of 2.52% to 102.50 euros.

Pending more information on the measures to be taken at the Brussels summit, banking stocks move in a disorganized: Cr?dit Agricole and BNP Paribas rose respectively from 0.90% to 12.94 euros and 0, 33% to 58.03 euros. In contrast, Societe Generale and Dexia retreating respectively from 0.27% to 46.38 euros and 0.22% to 4.47 euros.

Renault rose 0.61% to 34.01 euros, negotiations on cooperation between the French automotive group Daimler and German are close to reaching an agreement, the Financial Times online payday loans !!!???!! !???!!!.

The Italian A2A accelerates the process of selling its stake in Edison to EDF (-0.09% to 38.55 euros), a transaction that would allow the French group to take control of Italy's number two electricity, at we learned from sources close to the matter.

TF1 head of DTH

Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Spain are planning to protest together with the U.S. President Barack Obama against the forced removal of EADS (+0.76% to 15.28 euros) in the invitation to Tender tanker aircraft for the U.S. Air Force said Thursday the daily newspaper Les Echos.

TF1 got the green light by the High Council of Audiovisual (CSA) to buy chains and TMC NT1 group but AB's subsidiary Bouygues will make certain commitments.A decision welcomed by financial markets as the TF1 shares climbed 4.93% to 13.63 euros, the largest increase in DTH.

KKR announced Wednesday the sale of a stake of 4.4% in Legrand through a process of "book building" accelerated. It will own 20.6% of the capital and 27.5% of the voting rights of French group at the end of the assignment. Wendel for his part said not to join the operation and maintain its 24.9% stake in Legrand (-4.11% to 23.59 euros). KKR shares changing rapidly declining from 2.14% to 6.41 euros.

Camaieu (stable to 158 euros) announced Wednesday the results in sharp drop in 2009 but said he observed an improvement trend in the last semester.

Veolia (+1.25% at 25.96 euros) announced in a statement that the new boss of EDF, Henri Proglio, leaving the presidency of the board of directors. His replacement has yet not been identified.

The French pharmaceutical company Sanofi-Aventis and the U.S. Merck in a statement announcing the creation of a joint venture in animal health. Owned equally between the two groups, it is destined to become the world's number one industry with a combined turnover of approximately $ 5.3 billion, or 29% of the market.

Since July 29, 2009 and redeemed for $ 4 billion of Merck's participation in their previous joint venture Merial, Sanofi-Aventis had an option to meet with Merial, Intervet Schering-Plow Animal Health Division in the born merger between Merck and Schering Plow.

The deal values Merial to 8 billion dollars and Intervet Schering-Plow 8.5 billion.It already cost at Sanofi-Aventis 250 million dollars to establish an equal joint venture with Merck, and 750 million under the agreement of July 2009 the statement said.

The formation of this joint venture is subject to completion of definitive agreements, review by competition authorities in the United States, Europe and other countries . The completion of the transaction is expected during the next 12 months. Pending completion of the transaction, Merial and Intervet Schering-Plow continue to work independently.

The market for animal health has reached 19 billion dollars in 2008. Products for pets represent 40% of the market and 60% for animal production.The growth of this market should be about 5% per year during the next 5 years, supported by a growing demand for animal protein, and by the substantial need for care for pets.

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Air France-KLM fails to emerge from the fog in which she sailed past four quarters. The airline announced on Wednesday a further loss in the third quarter of fiscal shifted 2009-2010, the fifth in a row. Over this period (October to December), the group garnered a net loss of 295 million euros. This is less than the 508 million the previous year but well above the 216 million expected by analysts. The operating loss also disappointed expectations, to -245 to -194 million against expected by the market.

In the third quarter, revenue fell 16% to 5.19 billion euros. Observers had expected 5.34 billion euros."The business has shown during this quarter are some signs of recovery but in an economic environment that remains challenging," the group said in a statement.

Operating loss record throughout the year

For more, Air France KLM expects operating profit in the fourth quarter of fiscal offset "the same as that of last year" was 574 million euros. This "given the expected recovery later in unit revenues, lower capacity and an increase of about 300 million dollars from the oil bill.

This means that at this rate, the operating loss over the whole year could reach a record. Indeed, nine months, the group's operating loss amounted already to 788 million euros.Adding to the loss of 574 million harvested in the fourth quarter, the operating loss over the entire year could exceed 1.3 billion euros.

In a more distant future, Air France-KLM confirms targeting a return to balanced operations for its fiscal year 2010-11, excluding the impact of oil hedges prior to 2009. The company relies on cost reductions, "expected a slight increase in unit revenues, the implementation of medium-haul product and restructuring initiated in cargo activity.

The general environment is showing signs of improvement in the airline also confirmed the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The situation could hardly be worse than in 2009.

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Secretary of State for Foreign Trade, Anne-Marie Idrac, will announce Friday morning trade figures in 2009. France's 5th largest exporter, has eroded market share at the expense of its competitors.

LE FIGARO .- What is the balance of French foreign trade in 2009?

Anne-Marie IDRAC .- 2009 was a year encouraging, marked by a significant reduction in trade deficit due to the strong decrease of the energy bill free credit report . But beyond that figure, the major point is that France has held its largest export in a context of crisis. The world demand in our country has decreased by 13% by volume, and our exports have declined in this order of magnitude.But this movement has been marked elsewhere and, unlike Germany or Italy, France has managed to retain its market share vis-?-vis OECD countries, accounting for 6.6% exports.

Abrupt return to earth to investors who started the session on Wall Street in the red. The unemployment figures in December were worse than expected. The U.S. has destroyed 85,000 jobs in December as the monthly report of the U.S. Department of Labor. The euphoria was not to go because the unemployment rate remains at 10%. Half an hour before the release of U.S. unemployment figures in December, all future pointing upward. Markets expect that job losses have continued into December. Some also not ruled the possibility of new posts.

Now, the Dow Jones fell by 0.4% to 10,563 points, the S & P lost 0.40% to 1137 points while the Nasdaq lost nearly 6% to 2295 points. The day before, the Exchange had ended in the balance.

Values follow

As for values, General Mills lost 1.02% to 70.57 dollars.The group is expected to announce some numerical predictions.

Barclays (1.18% to U.S. $ 20.63) receives a statement of recommendation from UBS from "neutral" from "buy."

Delta Airlines (-0.55% to $ 12.61 million). Information published by the Wall Street Journal announced that the U.S. airline American Airlines, together with the company TPG Capital, now propose to invest 300 million dollars more in Japan Airlines, for a total of 1.4 billion dollars.

Brought by investor confidence in the economy, U.S. markets have concluded the first meeting of 2010, the highest level ever last fifteen months. But on Tuesday, Wall Street opens on an uncertain note: the Dow Jones displays a meter just in the red, -0.03%, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.04%.

The euphoria of yesterday and seems to give way to calm. To recall, the meeting Monday was characterized by a jump in raw materials, through a combination of economic data carriers (Global manufacturing PMI at highest level in 44 months) and political or geopolitical event (tensions between Russia and its former satellites, strike in a copper mine in Chile …). The oil is pressed above 80 dollars per barrel WTI and the dollar has declined substantially.On Tuesday, a barrel of oil is trading at 81.53 dollars and the dollar continues its decline at 1.4438 dollar per euro.

On the macroeconomic front, investors will pay attention to the publication of overseas industrial orders for November, promises of home sales in November and figures about the car market, each in 16 hours.

Google and Kraft Foods for

Google (-0.38%) today gave a press conference during which he must present his new cell phone.

For its part, Apple (-0.04%) said the Wall Street Journal that it planned to unveil a multimedia device during the months of January to start next March.Moreover, according to All Things Digital, the group should buy an advertising company on phones, Quattro Wireless, for $ 275 million dollars.

Kraft Foods (+3.6%) has sold its frozen pizzas to Nestl? ($ 3.7 billion) to afford Cadbury. The giant U.S. agribusiness should specify January 19 the modalities of its new offering to achieve his ends. Today, Berkshire Hathaway (+0.06%), the investment fund of billionaire investor Warren Buffett, said he opposed the hostile bid from Kraft Foods, which he said the biggest shareholder, its British rival.

Mesa Air Group (-64.79%) announced on Tuesday it had entered under the protection of Chapter 11 of U.S. law on bankruptcy. The group intends to restructure its debt and settle its legal dispute with Delta Airlines.

The CAC 40 revives the green after having been the victim of profit taking on Wednesday. Around 12 hours, the benchmark DAX index rose 0.22% to 3944 point. The volume of trade remains very low (242 million euros), as investors deserted the market for the shortened session to be completed in 14 hours. The activity is even smaller that no statistics are expected today. After stock market, but the U.S. will monitor weekly figures on employment to be released at 14:30.

On the currency markets, the euro is rising against the dollar, investors sure some profits after the rebound of the greenback Wednesday.The euro gained 0.54% and traded at 1.4417 dollars against 1.4341 dollars late Wednesday.

As for commodities, crude prices are gaining ground, always supported by the publication yesterday of a decline in U.S. inventories for the second consecutive week. The barrel of Brent North Sea for February delivery gained 0.48% to 77.71 dollars. The barrel of WTI crude oil is 0.38% to 78.99 dollars.

If the objective of the 4,000 items listed on the Paris markets later this year will not be reached, the ACC can claim to have made a good performance this year. For now, the French index has gained 22.3% since 1 January. Of the remaining European markets, the trend is similar with increases hovering around 20% for German and English indexes.

EADS is good

The European giant EADS is the top of the charts of the CAC 40 in mid-session: title wins 1.82% to 13.95 euros.The parent company of Airbus has yet to face attacks by unions who say that the manufacturer will not be able to deliver its 13 A380s this year.

Like previous meetings, defensive stocks are also in the top of the table. PPR gained 1.71% and sign the second best performance of ACC, Suez Environment is 0.78% and 0.53% Oreal nibbles.

For this last meeting, the bank confirm their good health. Dexia (+1.82%), BNP Paribas (0.41%), Societe Generale (0.31%) and Credit Agricole (+0.12%) are all trending up.

Note, Cac 40 off the rebound of Air France. The airline gained 1.19% after having lost 1.70% Wednesday.

Total gain 0.34% on the strength of rising oil prices recorded since yesterday.

Among the largest declines in the ACC, there is Sanofi-Aventis (-0.80%), France Telecom (-0.64%) and Lafarge (-0.21%).

Carried by the first signs of recovery, commodity prices should continue to benefit from a demand effect, according to most analysts. And inevitably, when the recovery point the tip of his nose, the main concern of investors is inflation. Central banks, especially American, will they let it slip that the growth settles? Exactly, materials excellent in coverage against the general rise in prices. Among them gold.

It's the return of the "barbarous relic", to quote the famous phrase of John Maynard Keynes, the famous English economist. In one year, gold has gained 40%, up two times higher than the CAC 40. An increase which reached a peak last December 3, with a historic high: 1.227 dollars per ounce.The successive reductions in interest rates have reduced the cost of money at a level so close to zero as the low profitability of gold goes completely unnoticed. More than a genuine interest – unlike shares or bonds, gold in nothing (hence the term "barbarous relic" – the precious metal benefits mainly three phenomena.

Capitalizing on weak dollar

The first is the weak dollar, including emerging countries, mainly turn away. Asians, including Chinese, even openly criticize the supremacy of the dollar green. Which, incidentally, is a dangerous game for the Middle Kingdom, with about 80% of its foreign exchange reserves are denominated in dollars …. But alongside this, China, like India, strengthening its gold reserves in order to diversify its foreign reserves.Although they constitute just 1.6% of its total reserves of foreign exchange, bullion held in vaults of the central bank, however, correspond to the significant volume of 1054 tons, against 600 in 2003. What sets the Middle Kingdom to the sixth place amongst central banks richest gold, this beautiful place in Switzerland. The increase of 76% of China's foreign exchange reserves in gold vividly confirms the interest that Beijing is to the metal, she, who advocated the abandonment of the gold standard. Importantly, this increase clearly confirms the willingness of China to emerge more than ever a new international currency to replace the dollar ….

Hedging against inflation

Another aspect directly linked to the dollar's decline: the fear of a return of inflation."Now, what are the conditions for ending the recession concern; central banks should be tempted to let slip inflation initially, that the recovery takes hold," says Frederic Lasserre, head of research commodities at Soci?t? G?n?rale. Although there is no question, especially towards the European Central Bank left spinning inflation, the Fed, for its concern for some developed countries deflationary risk. It may well in the second quarter of 2010 up its rates.

Value shelter or bubble?

Finally, to protect against loss of value of their assets, investors seek refuge physically in oil and base metals, but primarily in gold.In a context where some European countries are in trouble (damage to the notes in Greece, under surveillance from that of Spain …), gold saw its role as a refuge against the sovereign risk increased. "In the absence of sustained recovery, the sovereign risk could easily extend to other countries (Greece, Portugal, Italy)," said Francois Chevallier, strategist bank Leonardo. "The famous precious metal is seen as a safe asset, since it can serve as a currency of last resort. The rise of gold is made to last, "says Nicolas Rajna, spokesman of ETF Securities.

His recent relapse of 1110 dollars per ounce should nevertheless encourage investors to remain vigilant. Assets designated as refuge values, like gold, could well turn into a speculative bubble ready to explode at any moment."The rise in gold is a mystery because apparently solitary, said Francois Chevallier. Gold, regarded as a raw material is recovered much faster than oil. He has also climbed more than euro (safe haven against the dollar) and that long rates (safe haven against the indefatigable), and that while risk aversion continued to decline. " The virtues of gold have been recently confirmed by the decision of large countries in the world to mobilize some of the gold reserves of the International Monetary Fund to finance its activities in support of emerging economies. The global financial crisis has led to the resurrection of the barbarous relic. It is certainly less sure she keeps that relationship once the crisis is resolved.

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The Supreme Court has sentenced in mid-November the ISP Free, a subsidiary of Iliad, to pay 2,500 euros to one of his subscribers who had complained in 2004 unable to receive television has yet endorsed a bid Triple Play (offers TV / Telephone / Internet) in the latter.

The customer had initially attacked Free before a judge near Orleans, demanding repayment of sums paid as damages. The verdict delivered on 1 July 2008 had gone in the direction of the operator who spoke of the technical problems he had informed his client at the outset of his subscription.The judge had chosen and the "obligation of means" and not "result" to make its ruling.

"The obligation of result" reached by the Court of Cassation

The Court of Cassation found instead that Free was indeed subject to an obligation of result vis-?-vis his client to provide the service for which he had paid, and only one case of "force majeure" would could relieve the operator and justify the breach of his contractual obligation that the technical incidents are not mentioned.

Such a ruling could set a precedent.That case, in addition to its symbolic of the victory of a "simple" client on a company such as Free, has serious consequences for the entire sector, as it will force all providers to verify that TV services are actually available before offering them to their future customers, under penalty of prosecution.

Without recourse, the operator has been convicted yet declined comment.