It is gold investing
Carried by the first signs of recovery, commodity prices should continue to benefit from a demand effect, according to most analysts. And inevitably, when the recovery point the tip of his nose, the main concern of investors is inflation. Central banks, especially American, will they let it slip that the growth settles? Exactly, materials excellent in coverage against the general rise in prices. Among them gold.
It's the return of the "barbarous relic", to quote the famous phrase of John Maynard Keynes, the famous English economist. In one year, gold has gained 40%, up two times higher than the CAC 40. An increase which reached a peak last December 3, with a historic high: 1.227 dollars per ounce.The successive reductions in interest rates have reduced the cost of money at a level so close to zero as the low profitability of gold goes completely unnoticed. More than a genuine interest – unlike shares or bonds, gold in nothing (hence the term "barbarous relic" – the precious metal benefits mainly three phenomena.
Capitalizing on weak dollar
The first is the weak dollar, including emerging countries, mainly turn away. Asians, including Chinese, even openly criticize the supremacy of the dollar green. Which, incidentally, is a dangerous game for the Middle Kingdom, with about 80% of its foreign exchange reserves are denominated in dollars …. But alongside this, China, like India, strengthening its gold reserves in order to diversify its foreign reserves.Although they constitute just 1.6% of its total reserves of foreign exchange, bullion held in vaults of the central bank, however, correspond to the significant volume of 1054 tons, against 600 in 2003. What sets the Middle Kingdom to the sixth place amongst central banks richest gold, this beautiful place in Switzerland. The increase of 76% of China's foreign exchange reserves in gold vividly confirms the interest that Beijing is to the metal, she, who advocated the abandonment of the gold standard. Importantly, this increase clearly confirms the willingness of China to emerge more than ever a new international currency to replace the dollar ….
Hedging against inflation
Another aspect directly linked to the dollar's decline: the fear of a return of inflation."Now, what are the conditions for ending the recession concern; central banks should be tempted to let slip inflation initially, that the recovery takes hold," says Frederic Lasserre, head of research commodities at Soci?t? G?n?rale. Although there is no question, especially towards the European Central Bank left spinning inflation, the Fed, for its concern for some developed countries deflationary risk. It may well in the second quarter of 2010 up its rates.
Value shelter or bubble?
Finally, to protect against loss of value of their assets, investors seek refuge physically in oil and base metals, but primarily in gold.In a context where some European countries are in trouble (damage to the notes in Greece, under surveillance from that of Spain …), gold saw its role as a refuge against the sovereign risk increased. "In the absence of sustained recovery, the sovereign risk could easily extend to other countries (Greece, Portugal, Italy)," said Francois Chevallier, strategist bank Leonardo. "The famous precious metal is seen as a safe asset, since it can serve as a currency of last resort. The rise of gold is made to last, "says Nicolas Rajna, spokesman of ETF Securities.
His recent relapse of 1110 dollars per ounce should nevertheless encourage investors to remain vigilant. Assets designated as refuge values, like gold, could well turn into a speculative bubble ready to explode at any moment."The rise in gold is a mystery because apparently solitary, said Francois Chevallier. Gold, regarded as a raw material is recovered much faster than oil. He has also climbed more than euro (safe haven against the dollar) and that long rates (safe haven against the indefatigable), and that while risk aversion continued to decline. " The virtues of gold have been recently confirmed by the decision of large countries in the world to mobilize some of the gold reserves of the International Monetary Fund to finance its activities in support of emerging economies. The global financial crisis has led to the resurrection of the barbarous relic. It is certainly less sure she keeps that relationship once the crisis is resolved.
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