Whatever the final scope of the Franco-German compromise on a European recovery plan, a point is a virtual consensus: the European Investment Bank (EIB) will be further tapped. During his campaign, Francois Hollande has repeatedly cited the institution, explaining to want to see more funding for innovative projects. Chaired by a German, Werner Hoyer, the EIB has the added advantage of being compatible with the philosophy of Berlin in public finance.

Created after the Treaty of Rome, in 1958, this arm of the European Union acts as a conventional financial institution with its shareholders – the 27 EU member states – and its own funds – 232 billion – which it serves as collateral to raise funds on the market and in return grant funds to the public sector. In other words, an appeal to the EIB does not dig, as such, deficits in the area.

Finance ministers of Twenty-Seven will meet Tuesday morning in Brussels, the Governing Council to start work on the practical modalities of strengthening the institution. An exercise stress: no question that the EIB, currently rated "AAA" by the three major agencies, lose this precious document. Where applicable, the cost of refinancing is found in heavy and interventions become less effective.

Two schemes in the study

Request more loans the EIB is therefore to provide in return the appropriate funds. Two schemes are under consideration. The first is to rely on the EU budget. The idea of ​​bringing the Commission to the capital being strongly opposed by the Member States, the solution that emerges would be to use part of European funds as collateral for loans which would then be granted by the EIB. It is this pattern that has been adopted in Greece, for example where the Bank has committed to lend up to 1 billion euros for innovative SMEs from a guarantee of 500 million EU.

The second scheme – which holds the rope – is a mere increase of the EIB's capital, financed by the 27 shareholders. The magnitude of this increase would be about 10 billion euros, which would allow the EIB to grant 60 billion of loans that can generate around 180 billion investment, thanks to the leverage caused by the co-investment from the private sector. An overall figure on which refuses to engage the side of the EIB, "everything depends on the type of investment, leverage is stronger in the context of public-private partnerships in SME lending" says an official. However, the figure of 10 billion additional capital seems to be confirmed.

The impact is not negligible for the European states. The two main shareholders of the bank, France and Germany, which each own 16.5% stake, will write a check for $ 1.65 billion. And even if it is not, strictly speaking, additional debt, the stress on budgets is important. The talks between finance ministers will continue in the coming weeks, to stop a scheme before the European Council in late June.  

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Less than three weeks of its annual general meeting, it is very bad news just learned that the 40,000 shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett suffers from prostate cancer.

"This note to say that I was diagnosed with prostate cancer stage 1. The good news is that my doctors told me that my health does not put anything in my life in danger or does not weaken me enormously, "says legendary investor highly respected in the financial community, in a letter. In his message, he explains that he and his doctors decided he would undergo radiation therapy for a period of two months starting in mid-July.

This protocol will restrict its ability to move, but not prevent it to work everyday, he said. The shareholders of its holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, will be required to the evolution of his health, he further said.

However, the American billionaire sought to reassure its shareholders. "I feel very well – as if my health was perfect – and my energy is 100%" guarantee multibillionaire. More importantly, this announcement comes six weeks after the guru of finance said that the estate is already assured. He concluded: "I will inform the shareholders (Berkshire Hathaway) immediately if my health changed. One day, of course, it will happen. But I am convinced that this day is still far from us, "he concludes.

European capitals have asked the Commission to bone up on the fight against unemployment, but many probably not appreciate his advice: the lowering of wage costs to the free movement of labor across the EU through a minimum wage "modular", Brussels risk of setting fire to the powder to the left and right.

The document, which will be released Wednesday, could also ignite the French debate around employment and Europe, with five days of the first round of presidential elections. As Nicolas Sarkozy, Brussels appears for a lower wage cost burden on businesses. It is a "privileged instrument to strengthen the labor supply," says the latest version of the text obtained by Le Figaro. The Commission suggests alternative resources as VAT, taxes "green" and property taxes.

Another proposal leading risks in contrast to spark outcry among conservatives, echoing an old controversy about the "Polish plumber". This is to overcome the final obstacles to a single labor market in Europe, the U.S. model. "Labour mobility is not sufficient in the EU (…) In order to exploit all the possibilities, it is crucial to ensure a balance between demand and supply of jobs" at European level , the authors note.

Red cloth

On this front, the Commission advances two tracks dangerously undermined. The first is the end of restrictions on employment of Romanians and Bulgarians, programmed by treaty by the end of 2013 but refused by nine countries, including France. The second is the opening of national public employment to all EU nationals, except as validated by the sovereignty of Justice.

Finally, Brussels waving a red rag in front of the entire European left: that of a national minimum wage that could be differentiated by industry professional, provides a way she, "to support the provision of employment ". The authors do not specify the model. But they ensure that wage floors should be discussed "in consultation with unions and depending on economic developments."

The contribution of the Commission is only prospective. It is unlikely that the communication "Towards an employment-intensive growth 'lead in the state. But it looks quite controversial for the twenty-seven Commissioners wish to review it one last time with the college in full force Wednesday in Strasbourg. Against the backdrop of elections in France and Greece, José Manuel Barroso will leave the public presentation in Hungarian Laszlo Andor, Commissioner for Employment and Social Affairs.

For Brussels, it is clear that the challenge of unemployment requires bold solutions. Lagging behind the emerging powers but also the U.S., the EU has lost 4.5 million net new jobs since 2008. Since January, a second recession in three years has increased the average unemployment rate above 10%. And restarted at the same time a growth debate that nobody has yet really convincing answer

.

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Subject to market pressure, the Spanish government is ready to break all taboos to address the public accounts of the country. Latest idea, unveiled Monday on a radio by the Minister of Economy, Luis de Guindos: as health care are no longer free for Spaniards earning over 100,000 euros per year. "The regions are responsible for health and education spending. Take into consideration that, in the case of health expenditure, we have accumulated a debt of 15 billion euros and that this can not happen again, "justified the Minister.

The reform is far from being seated. But the Conservative government of Mariano Rajoy has indeed decided to initiate discussions with local executives on this delicate subject. "The regions have to give up spending much of what they spend today," said the budget minister, Cristobal Montoro, in an interview in El Mundo. This can only go through cuts in health and education, two positions that absorb 60% of the budgets of the Spanish regions. Even weakened, the Socialist Party, however, give account of the voice, his number two Elena Valenciano, who said that the decline of these two budgets was a "red line".

British example

If the regions are on the spot like is that they are the cause of the slippage of the Spanish public deficit, which reached 8 guaranteed online personal loans.5% of GDP in 2011 instead of the 6% forecast. To reduce the deficit to 5.3% the government has unveiled a new austerity plan (down from departmental budgets, cuts tax loopholes etc..). But that was not enough to reassure markets. Hence this new trial balloon, that was just after the Minister of Economy assured in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on Saturday that Spain will emerge from this crisis "without outside help."

The idea of ​​restricting the access of the wealthiest households in the social system is not new in Europe. The UK in 2013 will remove child benefit when parents earn over 88,000 pounds (106,000 euros). In France, however, no candidate provides such a measure. Health, successive governments have preferred to increase the share paid by all French. One solution that the Spanish Economy Minister determines not to be "a panacea".

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A priori, the CAC 40 prefers the left. History shows that when the Socialists were in power, the index climbed an average of 5.9% per year, while a majority right does increase by only 2.12%. However, according to a study conducted in 2010 by researcher David Le Bris, the best stock market performance of the left are possible … with the right! In reality, everything is played just before an election: when the left is still installed but the government that the right was favored to regain power, while the CAC 40 climbed 9.6% in the three months preceding the election. Conversely, when the left was favored to grab a majority to the right, the stock market fall of 7.4% in three months. Statistically, we can predict that the Paris Stock Exchange lost ground in the coming weeks, if Francis Holland continues to remain the favorite in the polls.

Apart from this pre-election volatility, the stock performance of the left, however, are virtually the same as those of the right. "The markets have no political orientation. What counts is how to lead. And what they hate is uncertainty and risk, "said Alexander Hezez, responsible for managing AM in Convictions. According to him, the markets, which have so far joined the alternation, show no signs of panic and should not reproduce a May 1981 when Mitterrand came to power, the CAC 40 was won by 33%. For thirty years, governments of all stripes were infused into the economy leading stimulus measures, which led the public debt to soar from 20% to 85% of GDP without allowing full employment not support growth quick cash. "Today, the critical issues of fiscal consolidation and the continued construction of a Europe weakened by two years of debt crisis are incorporated into the curricula of the two main candidates," notes Xavier Lepine, President The Executive Board of the French PM. "Whatever the winner of the election, he will have his hands tied by these budgetary constraints and European," he says.

Still, Francois Hollande raises more questions than Nicolas Sarkozy. "PS The candidate seems to prefer higher taxes rather than reducing spending to clean up the public accounts, putting the French economy in danger and pressure rating of the country," notes the U.S. bank Citi. On the European front, the markets held in effect above all that the Franco-German partnership remains strong and welded. "If Francois Hollande did not ratify the European fiscal pact, it calls into question the future of the euro area", warning Gilles Moec, economist at Deutsche Bank. An implausible scenario for operators, who are betting that the PS candidate, if elected, will only add a paragraph on growth targets. "Provided that the markets are right," says Xavier Lepine.

]]> http://schulemitbiss.com/the-market-reaction-to-the-presidential/feed/ 0 http://schulemitbiss.com/363/ http://schulemitbiss.com/363/#comments Fri, 25 Nov 2011 04:48:06 +0000 admin http://schulemitbiss.com/363/ Gradually, the Mediterranean Solar Plan is developed. Thursday morning in Brussels, the two flagship projects and Medgrid Desertec designed separately at first, will sign a cooperation agreement. Of French origin, the first consortium aims to build high-voltage lines connecting Africa to Europe. Inspired by German, the second involves the construction of huge solar farms in North Africa.

The document will be ratified by André Merlin, President of Medgrid, and Paul Van Son, his alter ego in Desertec. Eric Besson, the French Minister of Industry and Jochen Homann, his German counterpart, will also attend. In Brussels, which is also a Council of European Ministers of Energy, the Commission also takes advantage of having worked for the merger of the two initiatives quick cash.But technological advances have reduced line losses, which now stand at 3% per thousand miles, plus 2% at the entrance and exit of high-voltage network, says the expert of the IEA.

Current day and night

The future of solar photovoltaic Maghreb will not. This will be central to thermal concentration (on the principle of Gemasolar, Spain) that have the great advantage of storing energy and thus provide power at night or on cloudy days, and especially the demand.

The first project under the Desertec should expand its parabolic mirrors of 12 square kilometers, near Ouarzazate (Morocco) and an output of 500 megawatts (more than half of a nuclear reactor for generating Fessenheim for example).

What happened in three years for such a reversal of steam takes place? The answer lies in the United States. In September 2008, Lehman Brothers went bankrupt and causes his fall in the economy and global finance. Or "platinum, like palladium, is a precious metal that is used to build cars.The automotive sector, linked to economic conditions, decreased high during the crisis. The platinum price has consistently dropped sharply during this period, "said Steve Allard XTB.

The evolution of the gold price since February 2010 (top) and platinum in February 2006 (below). Source: XTB France

Officially, "the presence of a representative of the American administration will be part of the transatlantic dialogue on the current macroeconomic and financial issues," said the Polish Presidency in a statement. But in fact, Americans doubt the ability of Europeans to find a solution and Timothy Geithner should urge his counterparts to intensify efforts to resolve the crisis of the euro, says Bloomberg.One analyst told the agency "the Americans were anxious quietly and discreetly present, they become intensely anxious and present."

In the wake of rumors about a possible support from China to Italy, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told him at the opening of Summer Davos Forum, held for three days in Tianjin, China that his country "will continue to increase its investments in Europe Internet Payday loans." The prime minister said he was confident "China believes that the European economy can rebound." But Wen Jiabao said, "I hope that EU leaders consider their relationship with courage to China a strategic point of view." China wants to be granted market economy status from the European Union, which considers that the conditions are not yet in place.

China is not the only emerging economy to say ready to support the European Union.In fact, the five major emerging economies, BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), will discuss next week the opportunity to help the Union européenne.Ils could include increasing their holdings of bonds denominated in euros.

And Europe itself is mobilized. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel should discuss the situation of the country on a conference call scheduled for late afternoon.

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The stock has also lost more than 20% at the opening of Wall Street on Friday.A heavy penalty for a major strategic shift and two ads that markets generally enjoy little HP is preparing to spend 10 billion dollars for the purchase of Autonomy, the UK's leading software, and provided that the split of its business PC would cost one billion dollars in restructuring costs.

Just like what IBM has done six years ago, HP has chosen to focus on the activities dedicated to businesses (services, servers, data storage, network), while maintaining the imaging and printing. This focus on the professional world seems "logical" in light of the past of its CEO. Léo Apotheker has spent over twenty years with the German software company SAP, which he directed for eight years. These are businesses that generate margins sharply higher than in hardware sales.In 2010, business services have made 57 billion dollars in sales with in the key, 8.7 billion of operating income. Opposite, the PC division, tablet and phone posted a turnover of 40 billion turnover, but only 2 billion loss payday loan lenders.

By refocusing on activities "business," Leo Apotheker also takes the bet that he will develop the activities of data storage and servers. HP boss set including data analysis and cloud computing (computer services remotely) to raise. Competitors will be renamed the IBM, Oracle, Cisco and not Apple.

Consecration of the failure

The future of the PC division, mobile and tablet (PSG) remains uncertain. All scenarios are possible.A split, with a possible initial public offering that would make an independent business, but competition to apply. Redemption, we know the ambitions of China's Lenovo, which has already bought the PC division of IBM and wants to become world number one. Finally, pure and simple abandonment is also not excluded. This scenario is the worst, while HP has spent $ 25 billion a decade ago to buy Compaq and 1.8 billion last year for Palm. The group also invested in the revitalization of its software WebOS, and in the manufacture of tablets and smartphones with touchpad that just marketing. "In this area, not a sprint, it's a marathon," said Leo Apotheker, in an interview with Le Figaro, in late June. It seems that the runner will be out of breath from the first kilometer.

"With the strong growth recorded by the group in the first half and improved profitability, Faurecia is now a year ahead of its business plan 2010-2014 presented in June 2010", said the equipment in a statement.

Massive investments outside Europe

In this context, the overall objectives of the group are revised upwards.Faurecia, which estimates that growth "should remain strong in the second half in all regions", is a consolidated revenue of between 15.7 and 15.9 billion euros, against 14.8-15300000000 expected so far, an increase of 13.8% to 15.2% over 2010. Incidentally, the group refines upwards its target of operating profit in the range from 620 to 650 million euros, against a previous range from 580 to 640 million.

Yann Delabrière, CEO of Faurecia, said Tuesday during a presentation to analysts that commodities do not constitute a risk to the second half.

To achieve these results, Faurecia is at 450 million its investment objective for this year, against an initial assumption of 350 million.The effort will be concentrated in low-cost countries where investments will increase by 89% against 16% for countries where the cost base is higher. During the presentation of its strategic plan in June 2010, the OEM had also set a goal of doubling the share of sales outside Europe that carries 42% within five years, against 23% in 2009. In the first half, the share of sales generated outside of Europe had already reached 34%. Yann Delabrière announced that the share of sales outside Europe should strive for 50% of the objectives of the new plan in 2015 to be unveiled in November.

The stock market punishes

In a presentation to analysts, Faurecia said to expect in 2011 a new record in terms of new contracts expected between 13 and 14 billion euros, against 13.1 billion in 2010.According to Yann Delabrière, the group would continue to study small acquisitions to strengthen its technology portfolio, but the priority of the moment was clear to organic growth.

"The results are in line with consensus," said JP Morgan Cazenove soberly in a note. "The EBIT forecast is revised up slightly, but remains in line with consensus, while the increase in investment spending reduces the cash flow outlook," says the broker. Indeed, Faurecia has revised down to 100 million euros its forecast net cash flow in 2011, against 200 million euros expected so far.

It is this last point that holds the attention of investors on Tuesday at the Paris Bourse. In early trade, the title Faurecia drops 1.55% to 29.87 euros in a market up 0.55%.

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