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Released in early 2010, a year and a half of recession caused by the bursting of the housing bubble, Spain could plunge into the red. Supported by the only engine of exports and tourism, the economy will suffer from the international slowdown. And domestic demand – consumption and investment – remains stalled, weighed down by record unemployment. Economists forecast a decline in activity over the next two quarters. For the full 2012, Natixis expects an increase of GDP, limited to 0.2%, even more severe, Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects a fall of 0.7%. Two days before the election, the government had to accept lower growth for 2011 at 0.8% against 1.3%, less than half that expected by Brussels in the euro area.

Occupation: the red lantern of Europe

This is the black point of the Spanish economy fast cash without a hassle.With more than 22% Madrid shows the unemployment rate the highest in the euro area. One in five is unemployed and no improvement is expected in the short to medium term. Affected sectors, construction and real estate have lost more than 1.4 million jobs since 2007, while 700,000 jobs were destroyed in the industry. Are the front line jobs with low qualifications, young people without experience and foreign populations. The long-term unemployment has risen sharply, increasing the risk of dangerously exclusion. This file will be the priority of the next majority. Structural reform, initiated by the Zapatero government, to more flexible labor market, had no positive effect on job creation.

Damaged property market beating down the banks

In 2003, real estate euphoria, he built over 700,000 homes per year.

Asian markets see red on Tuesday, like their American and European counterparts. After a brief period of optimism following the European Agreement on the debt control, "the market's attention is focused on implementing the plan, wondering when banks will be recapitalized and if additional funds can be allocated to the European financial stability, "said Kazuhiro Takahashi, broker at Daiwa Securities, quoted by Dow Jones Newswires.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange and ended the session down sharply from 1.70% to 8835.52 points. The broader Topix index has in turn yielded 1.25% to 754.50 points. In Japan, the export sector still suffers from a weak yen against the dollar only after direct intervention from the Japanese government on the foreign exchange market to weaken the outbreak of the currency.On Tuesday, the dollar stood at just above 78 yen and the euro around 108 yen, well below their value on Monday. "We are engaged in a war of nerves" with speculators, said Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi at a press conference.

Toyota lost 1.82%, Mitsubishi and Nissan Motor 1.90%. The automotive sector has not benefited from the announcement of an increase of 28.3% of new vehicle sales in October. TDK has, however increased by 3.67%, even after the publication of a net profit, down to $ 56.6 million in the third quarter. Toshiba has gained 1.43% despite announcing a 19% drop in quarterly profits. Other value of the day in Tokyo: Panasonic, which has lost 5.07%.The rating agency Moody's said it may lower the rating of long-term debt of the Japanese electronics giant, because of the poor profitability of its TV and semiconductor and high costs of Restructuring.

Oil down

Moreover, time is also reduced. The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong and Shanghai respectively, losing 1.97% and 0.11%. The Korean Kospi is in equilibrium, an increase of 0.03%, the S & P lost 1.52% Australian and Indian Sensex drops 0.80%. In Sydney, the mining sector was battered in the wake of the raw materials: BHP Billiton lost 2.72% and 2.98% Rio Tinto. Same thing in Hong Kong where Aluminum Corp. 4.38% loose.

Oil prices were down after the announcement of the bankruptcy of U.S. broker MF Global Fund and new fears about the debt crisis in the euro area.

Optimism is more than up to the Paris Stock Exchange on Monday. After increasing by 0.61% at the opening in the wake of the Asian markets, up sharply, the CAC 40 is pressed into the red after the release of poor figures on economic activity in the euro area, dropping 0, 31% to 3162.59 points shortly before 14 hours.

Private activity has accelerated its decline in October in the euro area, the PMI reaching 47.2 against 49.1 in September when he was dropped below 50 points for the first time in two years, indicating a decline in activity. France is no exception to this trend, since the firm Markit PMI index fell to lowest in 29 months, to 46.8 points against 50.2 in September.Note that in France, business failures showed a sharp rise of 19.4% in May, a month after three consecutive monthly declines, said Monday the National Institute of Statistics.

The prospect of a solution to the debt crisis in the euro zone after the EU summit this weekend has not been sufficient to support the CAC 40. Meeting in Brussels, Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel Sunday near their positions on the key issue of European bailout fund and its clout in the marketplace. However, on request of Germany, the final decision will be taken until the night of Wednesday to Thursday, after another conclave of crisis. Considering the situation "very complex", Nicolas Sarkozy has sought reassurance "negotiations progress on the issue of banks on the issue of Greece, things are progressing," he said.Selun President of the Republic, "a broad agreement is emerging on strengthening the EFSF."

For its part, Angela Merkel added that the proposed model does not imply the ECB, as advocated by France. Clearly, the European bailout fund (EFSF) leverage its resources, but no new States' contribution of the euro, or use means unlimited in principle of the ECB. With leverage, the EFSF-today with $ 440 billion, and could see his strike force raised in 1000 or € 1500 billion.

In addition, the euro area is considering creating a special fund that could be echoed by emerging countries to stem the debt crisis. China has expressed particular the possibility of financial support.Still, this idea is controversial, some states are reluctant to explicitly request the help of Beijing, according to diplomatic sources cited by AFP.

Tensions within the 27 Member States

Until particularly critical of the slow pace until the European Union to manage the crisis, the International Monetary Fund, through its Executive Director Christine Lagarde, immediately praised the "very good progress" Sunday . "It was really an effective meeting, and I hope it is really in the right direction for Wednesday," she insisted.

However, the rising discontent among the ten states of the European Union not members of the euro area, Britain in the lead, complaining of the increasing willingness of states using the common currency to make decisions without consulting them."The crisis in the euro area affects all our economies, including that of Great Britain", insisted the British Prime Minister David Cameron on Sunday. Of tit for tat, Nicolas Sarkozy replied: "We are tired of hearing you criticize us and tell us what we have to do," the French president would have dropped according to the Daily Telegraph and The Guardian, quoting diplomatic sources .

Another measure expected: the Atlantic, Barack Obama will unveil this week a series of initiatives to support the economy and that will not require congressional approval, said an official of the White House.The U.S. president will announce such a measure to facilitate the refinancing of mortgages for Americans own their homes bad credit payday loans.

Activity contracted in France in October

On the macroeconomic front, Markit publishes this morning the Flash PMI in October measuring the level of activity in the private sector in several European countries. In France, the composite index fell to 46.8 from 50.2 in September, falling below 50 which separates growth and contraction. In other words, the activity in the private sector in France shrank in October for the first time since mid-2009, through reducing the risk of recession.In Germany, private sector activity in October also falls in the area of ​​decline, with a composite index stood at 48.9, while analysts expected a growth in activity across the Rhine over the month.

Orders to industry in the euro area will be published early in the afternoon.

For its part, the ECB will publish its report weekly purchases sovereign debt at 15.30.

Oil prices were up in early trade Monday morning in electronic trading in the morning, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for December delivery gained 8 cents to 87.48 dollars on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Hand currency, the euro is stable against the dollar on Monday, the single currency displayed in the balance dollars 1.389 (-0.02%).

Bank stocks on Monday surrounded by very

The list of the progressions in the CAC 40 is dominated by the Monday morning increases of bank stocks, buoyed by hopes of an early solution to the debt crisis in Europe. Thus, BNP Paribas gained 0.25% to 31.86 euros. Allows itself Societe Generale 2.87% to 19.50 euros and Credit Agricole advance of 1.26% to 4.90 euros.

Outside the CAC 40, Faurecia (4.38% to 18.36 euros) stands up.The French automotive supplier controlled by PSA Peugeot Citroen, saw a 16% increase in sales in the third quarter to 3.8 billion euros, and confirmed its annual forecast.

The values ​​next to the lowest market-oriented Paris on Monday morning located Peugeot (-1.89% to 16.62 euros), Yellow Pages (-1.57% to 3.01 euros) and Mercyalis (-1 , 83% to 26.28 euros).

The land in the spotlight

• Gecina (0, 82% to 68.84 euros)

The land identified for the first nine months of a recurring profit of 239.8 million euros, down 8.5%, according to a statement. At six months, the decline of this indicator management was limited to 7.8%. The group does not publish its net profit for the period. He cashed for 476.5 million euros in gross rents on these nine nine months, up 2.9% over the same period in 2010.Gecina confirms its forecast of a recurring profit down 7% for the entire year.

• Icade (-1.08% to 64.30 euros)

The group released Monday property sales up 11% in the first nine months of 2011, thanks in particular to the full-year effect of the acquisition of Compagnie la Lucette. Its sales reached 1,065.8 million at September 30.

• Renault (0.40% to 27.63 euros)

The automaker expects to see its sales volumes grow in the range of 2 to 8% this year, said Carlos Tavares, the deputy CEO of the automaker, in an interview published by Automotive News.

• Sanofi (1.06% to 51.51 euros)

The pharmaceutical company announced that Lemtrada, a drug to fight against multiple sclerosis, was more effective in preventing relapse than medication legacy developed by Germany's Merck.

• April Group (3.15% to 11.95 euros) and Seb (2.36% to 59.95 euros) will also publish their turnover in the third quarter. While STMicroelectronics (0.34% to 5.33 euros) will report its third quarter results.

After his recovery in the day Wall Street takes a break. The Dow Jones falling by 0.25% to 11,549 points and the Nasdaq 0.70% to 2639 points. Investors should indeed play the card of caution before the release, after closing, the beige book of the U.S. central bank. This snapshot report on the health of the U.S. economy is still highly anticipated by the markets.

Meanwhile investors remain focused on company results and the problems of sovereign debt in Europe. After the warning on the sovereign rating of France, Moody's downgraded by two notches on Tuesday night the note of Spain. This goes from A1 to Aa2 with negative outlook. The rating agency believes that the country remains vulnerable to difficulties in credit markets.In addition, Moody's does not exclude a further reduction if the crisis worsens in the euro area.

Paris and Berlin would be willing to strengthen the stability fund

Rumors press reported an agreement between France and Germany to increase the capacity of European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) to 2000 billion. But European officials have denied the existence of a formal agreement. This issue should be at the heart of the EU summit on Sunday. Yesterday, however, German Chancellor Angela Merkel reiterated that the top of Sunday should be an "important step" but that the crisis can not be resolved "in a single peak."

At the macroeconomic level, housing starts in the U.S. rebounded strongly in September (15%), driven by the community housing sector, according to figures released Wednesday in Washington by the Department of Commerce.The consumer prices increased in September (0.3%) for the third consecutive month, continuing to erode the purchasing power of households. Investors will also monitor the weekly report on Wednesday oil stocks.

On the foreign exchange market, the European currency climbed to 0.60% in mid-session 1.3825 dollars against 1.3752 dollars late Tuesday.Oil, however, is more mixed.

The barrel of "light sweet crude" for November delivery lost four hundred, to 88.30 dollars a barrel while Brent North Sea crude for December delivery was appreciating by 13 cents to 111.28 dollars.

Mixed results

• Morgan Stanley (2.77% to 17.09 dollars)

The bank on Wednesday reported a profit of $ 2.2 billion in the third quarter against a loss a year earlier, along with a sales increase, both worn by an accounting adjustment.

• AMR (-7.80% to 2.60 dollars)

The parent of the airline American Airlines, announced Wednesday a net loss of $ 162 million for the third quarter, stronger than expected, partly attributed to rising fuel prices no fax payday advances.

• United Technologies (-0.39% to 73.83 dollars)

Technology Group has announced a 10.5% increase in profit to 1.32 billion in the third quarter and raised its forecast for annual results.

• Abbott Laboratories (4.50% to 54.80 dollars)

The health group will split into two listed companies, one centered on the biotechnology and pharmaceutical drugs, the other on medical devices, diagnostics, nutritional supplements and generic drugs, announced the laboratory management.

After the close of Wall Street, Tuesday, several big names from the coast, including three technology giants Apple, Intel and Yahoo! have announced their quarterly results.

• Apple (-5.17% to 400.41 dollars)

The company issued a apple annual net profit up 85% to 25.22 billion dollars but less than market expectations, with a fourth quarter hit by the slowdown in sales of iPhones. The turnover stood at $ 28.3 billion against $ 29.6 billion expected. The firm at the apple has sold 17 million iPhones during the quarter (as against 20 million expected), 4.89 million Mac computers (4.4 million expected) and 11.12 million iPads. For the current quarter, the group of Cupertino expects earnings per share of 9.3 dollars against 9.02 dollars estimated by analysts.

• Intel (4.40% to 24.43 dollars)

Micoprocesseurs a giant in the third quarter against a BPAD $ 0.65 $ 0.61 expected and $ 0.52 last year.The turnover stood at 14.23 billion against $ 13.87 billion a year earlier. The group also increased the amount of its share repurchase program to $ 10 billion.

• Yahoo! (4.46% to 16.16 dollars)

The engine iinternet published for the third quarter EPS of $ 0.21 against $ 0.17 expected. The revenue excluding traffic acquisition costs amounted to $ 1.07 billion, as expected. For the current quarter, the company expects a turnover of 1.13 billion dollars against 1.24 billion expected by analysts.

• Cree (-8.17% to 25.52 dollars) has reported a turnover of 269 million dollars in the first quarter of 2011/2012, stable over one year. Net income fell 58% to 28 million.For the current quarter, Cree expects a net profit of 29-33 million.

• CSX (1.63% to 21.05 dollars)

The group of small electrical equipment achieved a turnover up 11% to $ 2.96 billion. Net income was $ 464 million against $ 414 million a year earlier.

After the close American Express and eBay announce their figures.

Second failure in two days for users of BlackBerry. Just hours after suffering a first stop on its servers Monday, the Canadian was again faced with a similar problem yesterday. Virtually all countries are affected. Consequence: the sending or receiving mail on BlackBerry were disrupted and access to the Internet. The explanations provided by the group are at least succinct: "We are working to restore service and apologize for the inconvenience." The breakdown would originate from a server malfunctions in Europe, according to sources.

These blackouts are more embarrassing for BlackBerry, which had the reliability of its services is signed. Aimed primarily at business users, the brand can not afford such failures.Especially since it is increasingly challenged, including the professional market, including smartphones from Apple and Samsung faxless cash advance.

Rumors of sale to Vodafone and Microsoft

In addition, these incidents are still undermining the leadership of the group which faces a shareholder revolt led by investment funds. They call for a change of management or the sale of the company. Since the beginning of the week, rumors have multiplied. The Wall Street Journal referred to a sale of the Vodafone brand. Others imagine a takeover by Microsoft, but it already has a partnership with Nokia.

These rumors have helped support the stock price. On Wall Street, on Tuesday, shortly after 20 hours (French time), the action Research in Motion (the maker of BlackBerry) was the same upward trend, gaining 3.63% to 24.07 dollars.

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All on a diet! Insurance companies to banks, asset sales affecting the entire financial sphere. So after Groupama, Societe Generale, BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole is now the turn of Axa confirmed the reduction of its balance sheet in order to cope with the crisis.

The French insurer has confirmed the sale of its subsidiary's equity division, widely reported in the press. "The purpose of this review, which could lead to a transaction or not, is to explore strategic options for the participation in the group Axa Axa Private Equity," the insurer said in a statement easy to get unsecured personal loans.

And pretenders abound. According to The Tribune on Thursday, the group would be interested Eurazeo.The U.S. Carlyle and KKR would also have views of the largest private equity fund French.

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All Americans should be involved in the effort to reduce the deficit. This is the message sent on Monday by Barack Obama from the White House Rose Garden. The U.S. president, who presented his program of deficit reduction, confirmed a tax plan of 1500 billion to the deficit of 3000 billion over the next ten years. "We can not get out of this abyss only by reducing spending. It is normal that we ask everyone to pay their fair share, "said the president.

In Focus: the wealthiest Americans. Barack Obama chose not to extend beyond the end of 2012, the expiration date, the tax breaks granted to wealthier by the administration of his predecessor, Republican George W. Bush. "We can not afford these tax rates low for the rich.We can not help us while we are suffering large deficits, "he says.

The most significant proposal remains the introduction of a tax, "Buffett," the name of the investor Warren Buffett who has proposed. As expected, Bush did not go into details about the conditions of its applications but according to the New York Times, the tax on millionaires that will concern only 0.3% of taxpayers.

"This is not the class struggle is mathematical"

According to Barack Obama, "it is not the class struggle, it is mathematical," he joked, responding to criticism from his Republican opponents who accuse him of wanting to punish those who have succeeded and discourage "create jobs". "Any reform plan will increase revenues to help reduce our deficit.This must be part of the formula, "argued the U.S. president, noting that" middle-class taxpayers should not pay more taxes than millionaires and billionaires. It is loud and clear, and difficult to contradict. "

The project also includes U.S. President down $ 580 billion (425 billion) in mandatory spending on social programs, including Medicare (health insurance for the elderly) and Medicaid (the federal program for the poor). It is also banking on an economy of one trillion dollars (733 billion) over ten years due to the withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq.

But the camp of the Republicans who control the House of Representatives has already ruled out raising taxes to reduce debt abysmal in the country.The proposals of the White House must still be forwarded to a bipartisan parliamentary committee, which means that this bill is unlikely to be adopted in the state.

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"SPECIAL CRISIS: fear of debt

Shortly before the start of the session in New York, the index futures Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 declined by 0.26% to 1169 points and 0.77% at 2122.50 points. The Dow Jones was approached for its small down from 0.13% to 11,253 points.

After aligning the day before a third consecutive session, the U.S. stock markets may experience a more mixed session on Thursday. As of Wednesday evening, the title of Apple, the Apple brand famous plunged 7% in electronic trading after the close of trading in reaction to the departure of the group's founder, Steve Jobs, Tim Cook replaced by .

So that investors may enclose the value seriously, now, from the beginning of the session. The stakes are high for Apple.On 9 August, Apple had a happy time oil giant Exxon Mobil's first-place capitalization in the world in full trading day before falling on the second step of the podium.

Unemployment menu

In terms of macroeconomic indicators, the weekly jobless claims, which will be published before the start of the U.S. session at 2:30 p.m., will also be monitored. A consensus of analysts expected a slight decline to 405,000, against 408,000 previously.

Wednesday night, orders for durable goods in the United States had rebounded in July, prompting stock markets to rise, on both sides of the Atlantic. "But the indicator of business spending showed the U.S. economy remains fragile," do, however, keep stock analysts from Barclays.In a context marked by the end of the indicators is misguided, or worse in reality than it seems, investors are on their defense.

Meanwhile Jackson Hole

Especially since tomorrow is Friday that Ben Bernanke will speak from Jackson Hole this Friday at 16:00. We will then know whether a possible third last monetary easing, on which markets have been speculation this week, will be decided. Alternatively, investors can look forward to continued low interest rates likely. The second estimate of U.S. GDP for the second quarter will also be unveiled.

The growth rate of the world's largest economy in the spring, which had greatly disappointed a month ago, could then be revised down 0.2 percentage point to 1.1%.

International equity markets, Asia and Europe have already received the news by frank morning hikes. The main interest, Wall Street opens therefore no surprise to any one as beautiful flight. Picking colors after yielding over 4% last week, which will remain the worst of the year, the Dow began the week up 1.10% at 12,277 points. Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose in turn respectively from 0.86% to 1303 points and 2785 points to 1.05%.

It is in extremis, on the night of Sunday, which is reached an agreement on raising the ceiling of U.S. debt, after a speech critical of President Barack Obama.Two days before the deadline set by the U.S. Treasury, the stakes were high: without this increase, at least 2.1 trillion dollars, the United States, on the edge of default, could sow the wind panic on financial markets.

Barack Obama has managed to generate compelling reconciliation of Democrats and Republicans on this agreement, investors now hope to see a bill passed in the coming days. A condition that Congress gives the green light, no later than Tuesday night.

No one knows for how to react, however, the rating agencies. Despite the compromise finally reached on the debt, the loss by the United States, their AAA rating is not excluded and would have severe repercussions on the economy and markets.

Meanwhile, oil prices rose sharply, driven by the announcement of the agreement.On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of "light sweet crude" for September delivery was trading at 98.18 dollars, up 2.48 dollars compared to the previous day.

Industrial activity and construction spending

At the macroeconomic agenda of the first Monday of August, the ISM manufacturing index for July will be announced (expected at 54.4 according to a consensus of analysts), together with expenses building for the month of June (+0.1% expected).

This week, analysts said Aurel BGC, "investors will focus on indicators confirming whether a rebound in growth. In view of the latest indicators movement is far from certain. Surveys of business advocate for a regional downturn in the ISM manufacturing index for July, which will be released today.Auto sales (Tuesday) and retail sales side of Wall Street in July will also be eagerly awaited. Finally, this weekend, the employment figures will be released by the BLS. They will be very affected by the lay-off of 20,000 staff in the State of Minnesota. "

73% of companies did better than expected

The European steelmaker ArcelorMittal and U.S. mining company Peabody Energy (0.73% to 57.89 dollars) on Monday made a hostile bid on the Australian Macarthur about 4.7 billion Australian (about 3, 6 billion euros), after the failure of talks to reach an amicable agreement.The board of Australian mining group declined Monday to support the joint bid from ArcelorMittal and Peabody to 15.50 dollars per share.

The title of the American manufacturer Ford (2.54% to 12.52 dollars) could take 25% as the group reduced its debt, is launching new models and trying to expand in China and India where he remained late over its competitors, said Monday the magazine Barron's.

Shares of online retail Amazon.com (1.75% to 226.41 dollars), which is just below its record high, could earn 10% to 25% if the investment result rapid growth of its retail operations, cloud-computing and Kindle reading light, said Monday the magazine Barron's.

The railway company of the UAE, Etihad Rail, said Monday it has ordered seven locomotives Electro-Motive Diesel, a subsidiary of U.S. manufacturer of construction equipment Caterpillar (2.36% to 101.13 dollars).

On the corporate side, after Merck (+0.03% to 34.10 dollars) and Chevron (1.57% to 105.67 dollars), which published its quarterly results Friday, the ball of publications in the U.S. coming to an end. Nearly 65% ​​of companies have indeed published their findings in the U.S. and 73% reported earnings above expectations.

Among the publications planned the first week of August, include those closely watched CBS, Cephalon, and Pfizer (Tuesday). Will be followed by Comcast, Time Warner and Mastercard (Wednesday). Then, Kraft Foods (Thursday), Procter & Gamble and Viacom (Friday).

EU leaders Thursday night put on the table a series of measures to help Greece, but also to convince that there is solidarity in the euro area payday advance lender.

Save Greece

Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank on Thursday. Photo credits: Georges Gobet / AFP