Olivier Blanchard. – One swallow does not a summer make. The simultaneous publication of figures for poor United States (1.6% in the second quarter) and that higher numbers than expected in Europe, especially Germany, have had a big influence on public opinion. But the trends are largely the same. After catching up driven by fiscal stimulus and the restocking of companies, are now the consumption and investment must make the request. And they face numerous obstacles, particularly the weak financial system.Growth will probably remain low, both the U.S. and Europe.

Stronger growth could she encourage Germany to be less rigorous in its public finances?

No, instead, it would probably take advantage of its expansion to consolidate its public accounts quickly, which is also good economic policy response. Although the Germans are the champions of fiscal restraint, consolidation actually provided remains relatively low at this time.We've calculated that the effort envisaged for 2011 is 0.5% of GDP – what we call in technical terms "change of primary balance adjusted for the cycle – while the same figure is 1% for USA.

What countries in the eurozone growth prospects have substantially different poses there not a problem?

Today, we can define three categories of countries in the euro area. Those who are competitive and are driven by external demand, with Germany being a prime example. Those, however, have difficulty in exporting: the case of Greece, Portugal and Spain must restore their competitiveness. And countries like France which lie between the two, with a trade roughly in balance.An exchange rate and monetary policy imply that these differences do not disappear the day the next day

The crisis of sovereign debt in Europe last spring she is behind us and its consequences are they limited to the actual savings?

I would not say that because countries like Greece and Portugal are facing painful adjustment process. The crisis has led to a general tightening of fiscal policies. For now, the measures taken by European authorities, with assistance from the IMF, have calmed the markets. But troubled countries must both balance their budgets, and responding to problems of competitiveness, which will take years.

The schedule chosen by Europe to reduce the deficit to below 3% of GDP in 2013 is not it too tight?

The essential thing is not so much the year or a specific figure.We need every government has a plan for consolidation in the medium term is consistent and credible, it can take steps to convince markets. Regardless of whether in 2013 or 2014, must present the prospect of stabilizing the debt. Once the markets are reassured medium term, countries have a certain degree of freedom in the short term. Until these medium-term strategies have not been implemented, it will tend to buttress on deadlines, this is not the best approach in my opinion.

Emerging countries can they sustain such rapid growth that their current savings if the G7 would stagnate sustainable?

No short term. If the U.S. economy slows, it will have a mechanical effect on Asia, not huge, but significant nonetheless.But yes the medium term, there may be a decoupling between emerging economies and rich countries. Asian economies and Latin America have the capacity and willingness to increase domestic demand, thereby offsetting a decline in external demand if it were to happen. China is reorienting its growth in this direction.

The rebound laborious United States and Europe or Japan is not it disappointing?

As I have said earlier, this hard bounce is not a surprise. The IMF said last year and a half that the recovery would be slow.Historical experience shows that it is usually the case when a recession was caused by a financial crisis because it takes so much time to repair the damage suffered by consumers and the financial system.

The response of the G20 was best?

He played a key role in coordinating responses to fiscal policy, monetary and financial. This coordination is important. If finance ministers are fully aware of the situation in their country, they, by necessity, a more approximate what is happening elsewhere. The meetings of the G20 meet the needs of coordination become essential because of globalization.The message of the Mutual Assessment Process "G20 Toronto is very clear: strong global growth requires both fiscal consolidation in advanced countries and a reorientation of growth towards domestic demand in emerging countries. And the two are closely linked. If the U.S. example can not increase their exports, they may have a very low growth, which in turn will make it very difficult fiscal consolidation.

The G20 should he not put on the table the question of exchange rates and the undervaluation of certain currencies?

When we speak of "reorientation towards domestic demand, for example in China, it passes through a myriad of measures, one of them, but only one of them is the appreciation of the yuan . This major structural change will happen eventually. Moreover, it has already begun.It would be cons-productive to simply focus on just the exchange rate, it is only one piece of the puzzle.

The formula has experienced a boom with the development of the Internet. The annual catalogs and postal letters gave way to sites updated 24 hours and 24 e-mail exchanges, fast and free worldwide. A real blow "magic wand", according to William Heinzer, co-founder of the site Trocmaison.com, with over 33,000 deals in 132 countries. At its opening in July 2005, he had only 6000.Homelink France, another leading player in the exchange with 13,000 deals in 70 countries, claiming an increase of 46% of its subscribers since January 2007.

France, the first destination for

The concept comes from the United States, where mobility is more common and less attachment to the old stones pushed in France. However, in proportion to population, the French are among the most active exchange sites. "They are adventurous! exclaims Denise Lemoine, in charge of developing Homelink France. France is the second country after the United States in number of subscribers. Even finding on Trocmaison, the French branch of the American HomeExchange: more than 5,700 vacancies are for housing in France.That figure is exceeded only by the United States.

Why such popularity? William Heinzer of Trocmaison, says he is "very surprised" the dynamism of its site, opened a little earlier than other European versions of HomeExchange. "France is the first destination of choice, he says, the French are so overwhelmed with proposals. Ile-de-France and the Riviera are top research but other regions such as Britain take the game as they pinned the growth of the site also relies on "the usual social networks" , which forces users regularly come into contact with strangers, and on word-of-mouth that can convince wary travelers.

Prepare the first exchange

Allow a stranger alone in his house delights rarely at first."The only way to overcome this fear is to talk with someone who has already made an exchange," says William Heinzer. "Communication between people is the basis of all," says Rudolph Nargeot, founding president of the association free website Switchome. Before making the exchange, both parties get to know each other by mail and telephone. "The exchange is the most difficult first," says Denise Lemoine Homelink. "We fear for his business and what you might find on arrival. But then you get a taste.

But be careful of setting even if, according to trade organizations and their regular customers, incidents and cancellations are very rare. The new "exchanges" and should check with their insurance only possible case is covered, especially if they have agreed to exchange cars with their partners.They can also, if desired, isolate some objects to which they are particularly important. Finally, if they are tenants, they can prevent their owner as a courtesy *.

Exchanging his apartment, but also make some steps to make his home attractive, find partners and agree on dates and different modalities. Once this done, prepare the house and realize a "home book", a veritable instruction manual on home appliances and various local places.

"The tourist in disguise"

But according to the regulars, these few drawbacks are outweighed by the benefits of this original formula. There are of course the financial aspect, not negligible. Indulge in Hawaii three weeks or two months in Australia is not within reach of all budgets.So it is pleasant, exchanging his house, to remove from its budget to housing costs and limit the cost of food.

Above all, the home exchange seduced by his state of mind, away from hotels and tourist buses. The "exchange" seek to discover another way of life by being a "tourist in disguise," said Jean-Louis, who has already made three exchanges. "When we're in Canada, we feel Canadian," says Gregory, another heat exchanger, we take out the trash, we go to the supermarket, we talk with neighbors, in short, we are part of the landscape, we are not tourists lambda in a hotel.

A concept that would attract companies

Born into a community of American professors, exchanging apartment has a hard day to return to the professional sphere.Homelink and Trocmaison trying both to establish partnerships with committees to enable employees to subscribe at a reduced rate and exchange homes with each other or with other subscribers of the site.

Explains Trocmaison have created a partnership with Dell Europe. The initiative comes from a customer site, director of group human resources computer in Italy. Dell was not available to confirm this information "It is not so simple to contact the Works, admits William Heinzer. But this is a project among others. "

Homelink side, efforts are not much more successful: we remember vaguely Ikea partnership ended several years ago between the Ikea Family card and exchange organization.This year, Homelink trying a new collaboration with Works of consulting firm Capgemini, which has engaged the services of the organization. However, "it starts slowly, admits Malika Dellal, head of Capgemini CE West. We will continue to encourage employees from using the vacation mode. Confident, she adds: "We will do a job of communication with the return of the best matches, six families this summer.

Some sites home exchange: – Trocmaison – Homelink – Intervac – Switchome

* Read: Exchanging his house: the new spirit of travel, Pascale Senk and Martin Rubio, the Editions of Ecuador

This morning, Asian markets have chosen a conservative increase in the wake of the positive closing of Wall Street Friday. U.S. markets ended the week on a fourth consecutive session progress (0.57%).

The LSE is also a timid step forward, the Footsie index gaining 0.16% to 5141.10 points. The DAX index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange climbs on his side of 0.14% to 6073.75 points.

In Paris, the stock reached Friday to keep the threshold of 3,500 points, allowing the benchmark index of snatch 6% in five days. On Monday, investors will try to keep this momentum. The meeting, however, looks very calm on the side indicators.The markets have learned before market that current account deficit had settled in France to 4.5 billion euros in May, from 2.9 billion in April, seasonally adjusted data.

The rest of the week will be loaded, the U.S., several interesting publications such as the budget (Tuesday), sales information (Wednesday), registration weekly unemployment (Thursday), or the index of sentiment consumer (Friday).

Caution is also placed on the European stock exchanges should begin when the ball Publications overseas payday loan lenders.From Monday, Alcoa will launch the festivities with the results of its second quarter.

Zodiac rejects the advances of Saffron

As for values, the supervisory board for Zodiac (4.31% to 41.50 euros) announced Sunday that he would not pursue a business combination proposal made by Safran.

Alstom (-0.89% to 38.35 euros) was applying for the construction of four stations on the route high-speed rail that will link Jeddah to Mecca, said Sunday the company to Saudi Railways ORS .

Carrefour (-0.27% to 34.50 euros) is to publish its second quarter results on July 15 after the close of trading.Analysts already expect a turnover of 24, 78 billion euros (+5.7%) including 10.29 billion in France (+1.6%) and 5.18 billion (-0.6% ) in hypermarkets.

Cameo (0.61% to 162 euros) announced Friday for the second quarter decreased by 11.3% of its sales, surface and currency comparable because of the lag of a week of dates on balances as of June July. The turnover for this period amounted to 190.2 million euros, up 1.1% on published data.

Total (-0.42% to 38.14 euros) have launched legal proceedings to challenge the decision of the Court of Appeal of Douai to force him to reopen his site Dunkirk.

No social plan, but hiring jellies, retirement and not replaced quits 1765 people. In total, the Company should have 2436 employees under the 2010-2011 fiscal year (which ends in late March 2011), 834 the following year, and 1121 in 2012-2013.

Between the beginning of the crisis in 2008 and 2013, it will be 9312 jobs will be eliminated, according to La Tribune. Hardest hit will be the ground staff, including 3,200 voluntary redundancies. The anticipated staffing needs for 2013 by the company found to be superior to the number of voluntary redundancies planned.The pilot should then be so redundant and ground staff and cabin light should be hitting understaffed.

Budgetary discipline

Anyway, this agreement will enable Europe to invent a new fiscal discipline. This is especially good news that Germany and France had openly opposed on this issue. We remember especially about the government spokesman, Luc Chatel, who said "this is not the European Commission to approve the budget of the French nation."

The EU finance ministers have also agreed Monday night to create new sanctions against countries too indebted to strengthen the Stability Pact.The agreement envisages the possibility of sanctions even when the current limit of 3% of GDP by the Covenant for public deficits has not yet expired, said President of the European Union, Herman Van Rompuy, at a press conference. The idea would be to trigger the excessive deficit procedures earlier for countries whose debt is not declining fast enough low fee pay day loans. It also put more emphasis on the future monitoring of the overall debt deemed not exceed 60% of GDP, and not just the annual deficits.

A modification of treaties is not excluded

The ministers have asked the European Commission to make proposals to define new sanctions.Brussels thinking, for example the suspension of payment of certain subsidies from the European Union for uncooperative countries. Germany also advocates for the suspension of voting rights at European ministerial meetings in Brussels. "We talked about but everyone is aware that financial sanctions not require a treaty amendment," said Herman Van Rompuy.He added: "We have not ruled out a treaty amendment, but has concentrated on what can be done at short notice and under the current treaty that does not have to go to the ahead and impose sanctions, non-financial, "he added, however, ensuring that there was" no taboos "for the future.

These sanctions, which remain to be defined, could be decided whether a country has ignored warnings from its partners on the drift of public accounts, or if the overall level of debt swells too fast.

In an environment where markets are concerned about the financial situation now in Hungary – which is not part of the Euro-zone, this agreement, which follows the completion of the rescue funds of the euro, should enable bring some stability to financial markets that really need it.

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In the end, the Dow Jones folds of 113 points (-1.14%) to 10,023 points, the Nasdaq drops 1.54% and the S & P lost 18 points to 1070 points (-1.7%). Oil, too, ended down sharply on 72.7 dollars a barrel, weighed down by a series of disappointing economic indicators in Europe and China, bad news for energy demand.

On the energy side, the sector suffers greatly (-4.3% for the sector index) of the state of BP (-14.97% to 36.52 dollars), which fails to control the flow of oil 's escapes into the waters of the Gulf of Mexico since April 20.Titles BP have lost more than 13% at the London Stock Exchange on Tuesday and 40% since the explosion of the platform.

The United States has opened a criminal investigation and civil and criminal cases to shed light on the oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico caused by the explosion of a platform operated by BP, said Tuesday the U.S. Department of Justice.

Two good stastitiques U.S.

The increased activity in the manufacturing sector in the United States has slowed slightly in May, the ISM index fell to 59.7 with measuring, according to figures released Tuesday by the association. But his pace, however, exceeded expectations and the industry and displays its tenth consecutive month of growth.

Moreover, construction spending in the U.S. jumped 2.7% in April, according to official figures released Tuesday in Washington, showing up much more than expected by analysts.Economists on average had forecast an unchanged rate of expenditure after the decline of 0.3% originally announced for March.

June catastrophic better after May

Yesterday, the NYSE was closed for Memorial Day. Friday, after falling heavily in meeting Wall Street had ended the week around the equilibrium. The Dow Jones had lost up to 3% in session after the announcement of the lowering of the Spanish debt rating by rating agency Fitch has finally yielded 0.23% at closing.

The month of June begins on a note strongly negative, while the month of May had already been disastrous for U.S. and European financial centers.

The euro hit a four-year low

On the foreign exchange market, the euro is down sharply.The euro fell Tuesday to 1.2115 dollars in morning, its lowest level in more than four years against the greenback.

The currency was dragged down by a report suggesting the ECB further write-downs for banks in the euro area. According to the ECB, the need for reserves of banks in the euro area to cover potential losses amounted to 90 billion extra in 2010 and 105 billion in 2011. After dropping Friday, the euro had rebounded Monday above $ 1.23.

Prudential pressure

On the side of values, the U.S. insurer AIG (-3.19% to 34.25 dollars) on Tuesday sent a procedural bar to his British rival Prudential, which claimed to be lowered from 14% the price of selling its Asian subsidiary AIA, which could derail the transaction record in the history of insurance.

Also note, the aircraft manufacturer Boeing Co. (-1.92% to 62.95 U.S. dollars) has won a tender to provide civilian aircraft to Russian conglomerate Rostekhnologuiï facing the European Airbus and United Aircraft Corporation Russian UAC.

Among the largest declines in the Dow, Alcoa is the red lantern, with a decline of 3.87% to 11.2 dollars, then comes JPMorgan Chase, which fell 2.63% to 28.54 dollars.

Only six values are listed in the green, including Kraft Foods (+1.05% to 28.9 dollars), more strongly, and Wal Mart (0.71% to 50.92 dollars).

General Motors has for its part announced its intention to invest $ 385 million in Brazil in the renovation of its existing production units. The U.S. company plans to renew the production line of a factory that manufactures Classic, Corsa and Vectra in Sao Paulo.

Since the beginning of the week, the CAC 40, which replaced the European aid plan of 750 billion euros announced in the night from Sunday to Monday. Last week, the CAC 40 index had fallen more than 11%.

Thursday evening, the benchmark index of Paris has stood still while the rest of Europe has evolved disparate: Spanish IBEX fell 1.11% to 9,977 points, when the BEL 20 has folded 0.22%, to 2534 points. While the Dax frankfurt took some 1.1% to 6251 points and the FTSE in London, 0.93%, to 5433 points.

The IMF: a report on public finances G20

Today, Europe is free of major statistical.In contrast, the United States, the indices continue to rain. Are scheduled for this afternoon publication of retail sales in April, very controlled, industrial production for the same month – also highly regarded – the index of confidence from the University of Michigan for the month of May – for a forecast of economic health – and stocks and sales companies in March.

Other important events this Friday, the IMF will publish its report at 5:01 p.m. on the budget deficit and public debt G20 Fast Cash Without a hassle.

EADS net profit down 39%

The giant European aerospace firm EADS said Friday a 39% drop in net profit to 103 million euros. The A380 still weighs heavily on the performance of EADS. The group has however confirmed its objectives for the year.

For this Friday, it is the only publication of results and no presentation of turnover is expected.

However, investors will follow the evolution of Cr?dit Agricole, showered yesterday: Securities fell 3.56% Thursday evening at the closing (the largest drop in the CAC 40). The bank posted earnings of 470 million euros in the first quarter when its rivals Societe Generale and BNP Paribas are respectively reached profits of more than 1 billion euros and 2.3 billion in the first quarter of 2010.

Furthermore, the Attorney General of New York has opened an investigation into eight banks, including Credit Agricole, to determine if they had provided misleading information about their mortgages before the subprime crisis, "according to The New York Times.

EDF side, the series on electricity prices is not over.Priced at 42 euros per MWh, the price increases would be 11.4% in 2011 and 3.5% per year between 2011 and 2025, according to the Commission for Energy Regulation (CER). Figures disputed by EDF. The government – which sets prices for electricity – and EDF belie such increase.

In its "World Economic Outlook, the IMF now expects growth of 4.2% against 3.9% estimated in January. The forecast of +4.3% for 2011 is unchanged. In 2009, world GDP had declined by 0.6%.

"The recovery of the global economy has developed better than expected," said Fund."The activity recovers at different rates, timidly in many advanced countries, but strong in most emerging and developing," he noted.

Growth will be slower in Europe (1% in the euro area, 1.3% in the United Kingdom) and Japan (1.9%). It would be higher in contrast to the United States (3.1%). But it would mainly driven by emerging markets and developing countries (6.3%), the Asia head (8.7%, 10% for China).

In this context, the IMF expressed concern about the impact on capital flows."Estimates of IMF economists show that current account imbalances will increase significantly with the resumption of world trade, improving financial conditions and the stabilization of commodity prices at higher levels," said the institution No fax pay day loan.

"The currencies of a number of Asian economies remain undervalued in significant proportions in the case of the yuan, while the dollar and the euro remained strong over the medium term fundamentals," said the IMF.

In addition, the Fund insisted on another risk to global growth, the swelling public debt of developed countries.

While advising maintain expansionary policies in 2010, he believes that "many of these countries must also take urgent credible medium-term strategies to reduce public debt and then back to more conservative levels ."The risks associated with foreign states may depress the activity for a variety of reasons," noted the IMF.

"The high ratios of debt (relative to GDP, ie) would hinder budgetary flexibility, lead to higher interest rates in the general economy, increase the vulnerability of economies budgetary difficulties, and compressing the growth," he listed.

Finally, the Fund has called on governments to "repair and reform the financial sector, to end the gaps in regulation, and to" support the creation of jobs and the unemployed, the unemployment rate to remain at around 8.5% in developed countries until the end of 2011.

The indices that had evolved sawtooth most of the day were immediately plunged. Almost everywhere, investors chose to pocket their gains on the values that have risen more. In London, the FTSE fell 1.39% and in Frankfurt the Dax dropped 1.76%.

Wall Street had previously lined up six sessions was washed away.Shortly before the close of European stock exchanges, the Dow Jones slid 0.51% and the Nasdaq by 0.76%.

Goldman Sachs Sticky

The U.S. stock market watchdog, the SEC announced Friday it was suing the U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs to "fraud" on the sale of investment securities linked to subprime mortgages, called "subprime" ( see also page 21). The good news continued to flow as the business side as the economy fell into the background. Thus, the highly anticipated conglomerate General Electric, as well as those of Bank of America, the Internet giant Google, the specialist of AMD microprocessors, or the toy maker Mattel has exceeded all expectations.

Good news also on the side of macroeconomic indicators in the United States.Housing starts housing as the number of building permits issued rose more than expected in February. In Europe, the public debt remains a central concern. Greece announced Friday its intention to raise 1.5 billion euros in Treasury bills. Tuesday an initial public offering had already helped to raise 1.56 billion euros. The announcement comes as the Europeans and the IMF are finalizing the program of aid to Greece. Finance ministers from the euro zone met in Madrid on Friday for an update on the crisis in Greece. And a new mission of the IMF and the European Commission is expected in Athens on Monday.

Despite the concerns of the Japanese government vis-?-vis the deflation threat, the dramatic rebound in exports could indicate the consolidation of the recovery so far seen as fragile and dispel any doubts about a possible recession.

The sharp increase reflects a recovery of global trade but also by a calculation that gives in February 2009 as the reference period. Japanese exports were then plunged 49.4%. Imports were up 29.5% last month.