Europe is entering a zone of turbulence
From our correspondent in Brussels.
The French like the Greeks have sanctioned the rigor and Europe seeking his bearings again. After the victory of Francois Hollande and the crushing defeat of the supporters of the euro in Athens, the EU has launched Monday in a forced march to catch up policy. Under the banner of growth, but piecemeal.
Much will depend on the ability of the elected president and German chancellor to silence by their dissonances to May 15 on what was until Sunday the compass of European capitals: the fiscal pact and collective discipline. But it is the vote that created consternation Greek. By depriving democratic legitimacy of the bailout which Europe has devoted two years in a considerable energy, it immediately wakes up the specter of a breakup of the euro.
"Greece is at the limit of what its people can cash in" on austerity, Michel Barnier recognizes facing the electoral advance of the extreme. For the French commissioner, the balance needs to find throughout the EU "between what is credible for the markets and what is bearable for the people." Angela Merkel is weakened by the ordeal, but financial orthodoxy is not provided under attack: "There is no question of renegotiating the bailout" laboriously reached in February with Athens, provides an official at the heart the discussion.
"All debts are created equal"
Sacrificing the Greek plan, or give a penknife in the Treaty budget, would be far worse than burning idols of yesterday. This would pave the way for overflow. Portugal, also on a drip European, certainly require adjustments. In Ireland, it might find in a compact variable geometry a right to say again "no" to a European treaty in the referendum of May 31
Francois Hollande has not specified how its European partners "for that austerity is no longer inevitable." Approaching his victory speech had already begun to move to Brussels as the European capitals. This was done in small steps, but the austerity of the mantras are already chipped or less: less structural reforms and budget cuts, more flexibility, employment and growth. "All public debts are not created equal," ahead of anonymity a senior official opponent of bureaucracy and cost of future investments.
A first dam jumped this weekend when the Finnish Commissioner Olli Rehn, in charge of the case, implicitly admitted that the objective of a budget deficit reduced to 3% in 2013 would perhaps not required by all. Greece, of course, but also Spain overwhelmed by the recession and unemployment could well benefit from this exemption the first inexpressible last month. Under "exceptional circumstances", validated by other EU countries.
The bet is that markets will accommodate this as an act of political realism and not as a confession of laxity on the euro. The big question remains of course France: its budget program is already extraordinary and rare are those who still believe she can hold the line, despite repeated assurances from President-elect.
The second exception to the rule of the game for the Relief Fund of the euro, too painstakingly negotiated treaty with Berlin. Again, this is Spain and its banks eroded by the recession that give cold sweats. The idea agitated in several capitals would authorize the "European Monetary Fund" to provide loans directly – that is to say unconditionally – Spanish banks. But this window open still faces opposition front of Angela Merkel.
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