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The time of discord between Cadbury and Kraft Foods U.S. suitor would be gone. The BBC and The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that even the banns could be published on Tuesday. An agreement had indeed been found between the two groups on the basis of an offer revalorized Kraft Foods.

The amount of this new proposal to be about 19 billion dollars, according to the U.S. economic daily, citing sources familiar with the matter. The British radio advance estimates of the same order.It expects an offer increased to 850 pence per share, at most, on the recovery of Cadbury at 11.7 billion pounds, or 13.3 billion euros, equivalent to 19.148 billion dollars at current exchange rates of one euro to 1.4397 dollars.

Based on closing prices Friday, the previous offer of Kraft, open until February 2, Cadbury valued at 10.5 billion pounds, about 12 billion euros or 17.2 billion dollars. Kraft Foods has finally decided to upgrade its offer in response to rumors of interest from the U.S. confectioner Hershey. British law gave him until Tuesday, January 19 to change the amount of its proposal.

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The CAC 40 revives the green after having been the victim of profit taking on Wednesday. Around 12 hours, the benchmark DAX index rose 0.22% to 3944 point. The volume of trade remains very low (242 million euros), as investors deserted the market for the shortened session to be completed in 14 hours. The activity is even smaller that no statistics are expected today. After stock market, but the U.S. will monitor weekly figures on employment to be released at 14:30.

On the currency markets, the euro is rising against the dollar, investors sure some profits after the rebound of the greenback Wednesday.The euro gained 0.54% and traded at 1.4417 dollars against 1.4341 dollars late Wednesday.

As for commodities, crude prices are gaining ground, always supported by the publication yesterday of a decline in U.S. inventories for the second consecutive week. The barrel of Brent North Sea for February delivery gained 0.48% to 77.71 dollars. The barrel of WTI crude oil is 0.38% to 78.99 dollars.

If the objective of the 4,000 items listed on the Paris markets later this year will not be reached, the ACC can claim to have made a good performance this year. For now, the French index has gained 22.3% since 1 January. Of the remaining European markets, the trend is similar with increases hovering around 20% for German and English indexes.

EADS is good

The European giant EADS is the top of the charts of the CAC 40 in mid-session: title wins 1.82% to 13.95 euros.The parent company of Airbus has yet to face attacks by unions who say that the manufacturer will not be able to deliver its 13 A380s this year.

Like previous meetings, defensive stocks are also in the top of the table. PPR gained 1.71% and sign the second best performance of ACC, Suez Environment is 0.78% and 0.53% Oreal nibbles.

For this last meeting, the bank confirm their good health. Dexia (+1.82%), BNP Paribas (0.41%), Societe Generale (0.31%) and Credit Agricole (+0.12%) are all trending up.

Note, Cac 40 off the rebound of Air France. The airline gained 1.19% after having lost 1.70% Wednesday.

Total gain 0.34% on the strength of rising oil prices recorded since yesterday.

Among the largest declines in the ACC, there is Sanofi-Aventis (-0.80%), France Telecom (-0.64%) and Lafarge (-0.21%).

Carried by the first signs of recovery, commodity prices should continue to benefit from a demand effect, according to most analysts. And inevitably, when the recovery point the tip of his nose, the main concern of investors is inflation. Central banks, especially American, will they let it slip that the growth settles? Exactly, materials excellent in coverage against the general rise in prices. Among them gold.

It's the return of the "barbarous relic", to quote the famous phrase of John Maynard Keynes, the famous English economist. In one year, gold has gained 40%, up two times higher than the CAC 40. An increase which reached a peak last December 3, with a historic high: 1.227 dollars per ounce.The successive reductions in interest rates have reduced the cost of money at a level so close to zero as the low profitability of gold goes completely unnoticed. More than a genuine interest – unlike shares or bonds, gold in nothing (hence the term "barbarous relic" – the precious metal benefits mainly three phenomena.

Capitalizing on weak dollar

The first is the weak dollar, including emerging countries, mainly turn away. Asians, including Chinese, even openly criticize the supremacy of the dollar green. Which, incidentally, is a dangerous game for the Middle Kingdom, with about 80% of its foreign exchange reserves are denominated in dollars …. But alongside this, China, like India, strengthening its gold reserves in order to diversify its foreign reserves.Although they constitute just 1.6% of its total reserves of foreign exchange, bullion held in vaults of the central bank, however, correspond to the significant volume of 1054 tons, against 600 in 2003. What sets the Middle Kingdom to the sixth place amongst central banks richest gold, this beautiful place in Switzerland. The increase of 76% of China's foreign exchange reserves in gold vividly confirms the interest that Beijing is to the metal, she, who advocated the abandonment of the gold standard. Importantly, this increase clearly confirms the willingness of China to emerge more than ever a new international currency to replace the dollar ….

Hedging against inflation

Another aspect directly linked to the dollar's decline: the fear of a return of inflation."Now, what are the conditions for ending the recession concern; central banks should be tempted to let slip inflation initially, that the recovery takes hold," says Frederic Lasserre, head of research commodities at Société Générale. Although there is no question, especially towards the European Central Bank left spinning inflation, the Fed, for its concern for some developed countries deflationary risk. It may well in the second quarter of 2010 up its rates.

Value shelter or bubble?

Finally, to protect against loss of value of their assets, investors seek refuge physically in oil and base metals, but primarily in gold.In a context where some European countries are in trouble (damage to the notes in Greece, under surveillance from that of Spain …), gold saw its role as a refuge against the sovereign risk increased. "In the absence of sustained recovery, the sovereign risk could easily extend to other countries (Greece, Portugal, Italy)," said Francois Chevallier, strategist bank Leonardo. "The famous precious metal is seen as a safe asset, since it can serve as a currency of last resort. The rise of gold is made to last, "says Nicolas Rajna, spokesman of ETF Securities.

His recent relapse of 1110 dollars per ounce should nevertheless encourage investors to remain vigilant. Assets designated as refuge values, like gold, could well turn into a speculative bubble ready to explode at any moment."The rise in gold is a mystery because apparently solitary, said Francois Chevallier. Gold, regarded as a raw material is recovered much faster than oil. He has also climbed more than euro (safe haven against the dollar) and that long rates (safe haven against the indefatigable), and that while risk aversion continued to decline. " The virtues of gold have been recently confirmed by the decision of large countries in the world to mobilize some of the gold reserves of the International Monetary Fund to finance its activities in support of emerging economies. The global financial crisis has led to the resurrection of the barbarous relic. It is certainly less sure she keeps that relationship once the crisis is resolved.

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While MPs this week to discuss the transformation of the company public limited company (now scheduled for 1 March), The Post takes this Thursday its board of directors last year. The estimated results for 2009 and the 2010 budget will be presented. One and one witness to the difficulties experienced by the Post Office. Reportedly, the net income group share estimate was 387 million euros this year, against 529 million in 2008. Operating income is below the targets: he would go below 500 million euros after a profit of 886 million euros in 2008. As for turnover, it is down 2% in one year. In 2008 it was 20.8 billion euros.

All the lights are red while the core business – mail – is severely mistreated. This year, volumes were down 6%. From never-seen.The spread of Internet exchanges is for many. The crisis has exacerbated the problem, mail is closely linked to changes in the gross domestic product (GDP).

"Divided by Three"

Next year does not reserve any good for the mail whose erosion is structural. Jean-Paul Bailly, President of La Poste, acknowledges. In June the group announced it expected a drop in volumes of 30% between 2008 and 2015, an assumption made by most major posts.

In his speech opening the general discussion at the National Assembly, Tuesday, Christian Estrosi, Minister of Industry, was even more pessimistic: "The volume of mail from Post diminish every day," said Minister.There is already – 10%, we will be – or even 50% – 60% in just three years! Again, this is not easy for a postal operator whose business is the heart of e-paper, to cope with the sharp rise of the Internet! "The consequences can be read in the accounts:" The benefits could be divided by three in just two years! "

However, the decline of mail could be offset next year by the growth of other business group, the bank and the package. The 2010 budget, presented on Thursday, would in any case this hypothesis. It builds on strength of sales in a very small increase.

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Eric Woerth, the budget minister, has reiterated this morning: the cell regularization well close December 31, 2009. So far, this structure set up in April has treated almost a thousand cases of taxpayers wishing to come into line after having concealed their assets abroad. "I am satisfied with this figure. And we expect an acceleration in the last month, "said the minister. Still, the famous list of taxpayers with accounts in Switzerland alone has 3000 names.

The tax begins to have a clear profile of the French who look to the cell. In most cases the money was hidden in Switzerland. Other education, the vast majority of the repentant are people who have simply inherited assets hidden by their parents or grandparents."For these fraudsters liabilities, penalties are lower," said Philippe Parini, head of the Directorate General of Public Finance. In general, they can expect that the total tax bill (tax due, penalties and interest) does not exceed 15% of capital. The very purpose of cell regulation is allowing repentant negotiate the interest and penalties.

At December 31, this advantage disappears. "We do plan to tax audits in large numbers. People on the list of 3000 will not escape. In addition, we will create an account held by French residents abroad, "said Eric Woerth. This file, called "Evafisc" will be powered by the 3,000 names. But not only. Earlier this year, published a decree that will create a real right of communication vis-à-vis banks in France.Clearly, the Treasury will request them to submit all transactions exceeding a certain amount made to certain countries over time. The focus will change each year. "For 2010, we will examine the banks' transactions from 2006 to Switzerland, Singapore and Hong Kong," said Eric Woerth.

The method will she work? It should be a little naive indeed to get his money from France through a bank. "Think again. Some believe going into armored pipes. Marketing of banks is effectively "the minister said.