EU leaders Thursday night put on the table a series of measures to help Greece, but also to convince that there is solidarity in the euro area payday advance lender.
Save Greece
Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank on Thursday. Photo credits: Georges Gobet / AFP
Greece Is in default? For Baroin and Valerie Pécresse, the answer is no. The Minister of Economy, interviewed on RTL on Friday morning, and budget minister, responding to RMC, however, swept this term used by many analysts in the wake of the passage of the bailout of the country, which provides including an extension of the term loan to Greece and lower borrowing rates. "This track is discarded because it would result in the destabilization of the deep zone," said Baroin. "These are not the words we use. Greece will repay its debt, "added Valerie Pécresse.
According to the Minister of Economy, the "partial failure" is that "legal characterization" that rating agencies could use in the coming days. "They will do what they want," says he.The derivatives market professionals, meeting within the International Swaps and Derivatives Association "(ISDA), should just meet in the coming days," probably "even today, to determine whether the new aid plan Greece is a "credit event".
Whatever their decision, Baroin determines that the plan provides an adequate response to address the situation: "This plan is a firewall. There will be the Central Bank to play its role as lender and the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), more flexible, which will intervene to prevent attacks by speculators. "
Banks will no longer be sought in the future
For the Minister of Economy, the agreement reached in Brussels provides answers "exceptional, deep, powerful, durable giving guarantees to Greece to support the continuity of its delivery to an acceptable level.""This is a response to avoid any risk of infection by a public-private and technical arrangements for the European fund, which also outlines the future prospects of the future European economic governance," he added. Regarding private sector involvement, the economy minister reiterated that private creditors are not required to save other countries in the euro area. "This is not one second that the private sector finds himself called for a voluntary basis for Portugal, Ireland, which are two other countries in the European assistance," he said firmly.
"Many things have changed yesterday. It was a real go of history which gives a more stable Europe, "said Baroin. Valérie Pécresse also welcomes the "Instrument for Stability" what happened to the EFSF, "beginning of a European Monetary Fund."She said the new rescue plan was necessary to "save and protect the euro." "This is a reference currency that allows France to have the confidence of investors. If we had dropped Greece, it was the French who would have paid, "she says.
The government spokesman also announced that "the Prime Minister will receive all 11 hours of national representation: the Senate president, the president of the National Assembly, the chairmen of Finance, European Affairs to present the rescue plan for Greece, which was adopted yesterday and tell them the consequences for France. "
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The Portuguese prime minister resigned, the socialist Jose Socrates, was not reappointed after the parliamentary elections held Sunday. The President of the Social Democratic Party, Pedro Passos Coelho is now leading the country, winning 105 seats of the 230 elected members of Parliament against a backdrop of record abstention to 41.2%. Shortly after the results, the chairman of the Social Democratic Party, Pedro Passos Coelho wanted to reassure its creditors. He said Sunday night that his country would not be "a burden" for them, promising to "do everything" to "honor the commitments" of the Portuguese State. "We will do our best to honor the agreement between the Portuguese State, the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to regain market confidence," he added.And to avoid political instability, the leader said he would form "as soon as possible" a "majority government headed by the DSP (…) with the CDS-PP, the minority party the right.
Analysts estimate that the net result of the election will be welcomed by investors, who had deserted the Portuguese debt market in recent months. In addition, the government will now hands free to discuss with the EU and the IMF to implement the bailout of 78 billion negotiated by the government resigned in exchange for a program of fiscal discipline and reforms economic over three years.The future government, which could become operational in late June or early July, will help reduce the government deficit of 9.1% of GDP last year to 5.9% this year and drop to 3% by 2013 .
The election comes as Greece, she received a new support plan in exchange for increased rigor in Athens. This second program of aid could exceed 100 billion euros are to believe the German newspaper Der Spiegel on Monday, and would aim to keep the country who still could not borrow in the medium and long term contracts, on a drip until 'in 2014.
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Good student, but must continue its efforts. It is, in short, the message delivered by the rating agency Fitch in France. She confirmed the debt rating "AAA", the best possible, with stable outlook. The French government has taken "a series of measures", says the agency, "which have improved the outlook for public finances." And mention the pension reform, or the draft law in fixing the principle of balance of public finances.
"However, these efforts must be extended to stabilize and then reduce the level of debt of France, which was the end of 2010 to 81.7% of gross domestic product (GDP)," warns Maria Malas-Mroueh, responsible scoring countries at Fitch. A number of risk still hovers in effect on the financial health of the state. Starting with 2012, a major election year.It should not, Fitch warns that the budget skids on the bottom of the presidential election. Especially since the forecast growth in the medium term Bercy (+2.5% per year) are considered "optimistic."
It should not, the agency said that the newly elected unleash the flange to the public finances in 2013. Instead, the agency left little choice to the government that emerges from the polls: "We expect the 2011 budget will meet its objectives (a deficit of 5.7%, Ed), but further efforts are needed to reduce the deficit to 3% of GDP in 2013, as agreed. " Debt levels will then stabilize at a level higher than before the crisis, reducing the flexibility to cope with future crises.
Note "under pressure"
In the medium term, Fitch added that "the memo from France could be under pressure (read: be revised downward, Ed) if the competitiveness of France was deteriorating again and if the position of France was weakening." The agency plans and the current account balance, ie the difference between money coming in and who leaves the territory, will remain negative in 2011 and 2012, approximately 2% of GDP. Fitch impels France to further reduce its "structural rigidities".
Despite these black spots, the Hexagon rest for now, said the agency, a "healthy and diversified economy," equipped "social institutions, civil and effective policies." He added: "financial flexibility reflect its status as a major issuer of sovereign benchmark in the eurozone. Clearly, the markets like, so far, take on France.
Hermes is Monday night in Paris the first general meeting of shareholders since its entry in October 2010, the capital of LVMH (with 20% today). The heirs, who hold 72% stake, hoping to get the green light in September the Court of Appeal of Paris to their proposed freezing holding a majority of shares, to defend against a raid by Bernard Arnault. Bertrand Puech, president of Émile Hermès family (sole general partner of the listed company Hermes International), a member of the fifth generation of heirs, is against the proliferation of litigation against the project, including those of the Association for the Defence of Minority Shareholders chaired by Colette Neuville.
LE FIGARO. – What will you announce to the general meeting of Hermes on Monday night?
Bertrand Puech.- We will announce, as we know already that 2010 was one of the finest, if not the best year, Hermes has lived for 174 years. The results were extraordinary in an economic context that was not favorable. This allows us to pay a dividend of 1.50 euro increased significantly compared to normal.
LVMH will he represented and he can enjoy his voting rights? Are you afraid of possible obstructions of the meeting?
The shareholders are all invited. LVMH said it would. He always said, if his friendship, in any case his pacifism. I am not chairman of the meeting but things should happen normally, as usual.
What do you think of recent legal actions taken by minority shareholders against the proposed family holding Hermes?
I do not understand.It's very sad and painful for members of a family committed to an ethic of openness and honesty for generations to be scratched before the courts, then we're just defending the values of quality. You should know that Ms. Neuville is a minority shareholder, who owns a single share, which represents only herself. She can not speak for the association which is not approved by the AMF. And it is wrong to fight. If she wanted to play a role in defense of minority, why does she not be interested in the fact that one shareholder said suddenly have 17% of our capital, purchased since 2008 without making it to the markets? I think she has given way to a big bad wolf.
Associated with the circumstances of departure, the figure will not be without cause some backlash. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director resigned from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), should reach about 250,000 euros in compensation, according to several media. The ABC even mentions an amount closer to 300,000 euros.
The IMF issued a statement challenging the magnitude of the sums advanced. Nevertheless. The contract of a head of IMF does provide for the payment of a "separation allowance" which is triggered automatically if the mandate is terminated before completion.According to the deliberate calculation based on the formula detailed in the contract, the compensation amount to 60% of final annual salary received by Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who is 441,980 dollars (310,000 euros) from the report 2010 of the institution.
A pension supplement
The allowance is supplemented by the payment of retirement by the IMF as DSK has completed more than 3 years in office. "Annual payments for subsequent years will be much less important," the IMF said.
The amounts have not yet been released by the Fund. But the clause providing for the allocation works even in the case of resignation related to legal proceedings, and the IMF should not oppose it. DSK is not the first to receive this allowance. His two predecessors who also left their positions in anticipation hit the allowance.The severance pay granted to a director involved in a sex scandal may be more difficult to sell to the public. When leaving their office, the Spaniard Rodrigo Rato had cited family reasons, while Horst Köhler became President of the Republic in Germany.
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Launched in 2007, the iPhone gave the kickoff of the mobile Internet revolution. The proliferation of smartphones and the launch of the free operating system from Google, Android, did the rest. Today, 37.2% of French people equipped with mobile use their phone to access the Internet. And their uses have an economic impact, the French Association of Mobile Multimedia (AFMM) sought to evaluate.
According to a study conducted on its behalf by Solucom, the mobile market has reached a business volume of 1.2 billion euros in France, in 2010. The share generated by the distribution of digital content and services on mobiles, produced by publishers from the Internet, mobile operators, $ 800 million. In addition, there are 300 million euros investment in application development and mobile services.Finally, mobile advertising and direct marketing accounted for 130 million euros in revenue.
This market should grow by +50% over three years, says the study, to 1.9 billion euros at end 2013. "The market for content distribution and mobile services is already fairly mature. But business investment in the mobile, for the promotion and customer relationship services, will experience sustained growth in double digits, "explains Isabelle Chapis, Associate Director of Solucom. "In parallel, the number of smartphones will continue to grow," said Frank Abihssira, president of the AFMM.
"In this market, several economic models and cohabiting relationships are balanced between publishers and operators, says Franck Abihssira. We have created an ecosystem that creates value and jobs. "According Solucom, 10,000 jobs are directly related to the mobile.1500 others should be created in the next three years, an increase of 25%. "The jobs are highly skilled, high value, in engineering, but also design, ergonomics, marketing and sales," says Isabelle Chapis.
Market consolidation
The study estimates 500 the number of companies that make up this market. They are young: more than half are under five years of existence, fifty less than a year. They are also rather small: 70% of businesses have fewer than 50 employees. Unsurprisingly, 80% of players polled by Solucom anticipate a change in their capital by the end of 2013. An asset for potential targets of consolidation movements: 80% of companies operating in the mobile are profitable.
Finally, the sector should benefit from the emergence of shelves and connected televisions."The mobile sector is being opened to irrigate all the digital industry as a tool for authentication, payment and personalization," Isabelle Chapis analysis.
For several months, the G20 and the IMF, but also Europe, Brazil, China, and rating agencies are urging the U.S. to clean up their deficit and debt dementia. Today, the U.S. federal government has the knife to her throat on Monday, the U.S. debt ceiling should touch her – already noted in January – set at 14.294 billion dollars, from which the U.S. can not borrow more.
In other words, the United States are on the verge of bankruptcy. Given the urgency of the situation, the Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner gave a stay of 30 days to allow Congress to reach agreement with the White House. They have until August 2nd to negotiate a compromise, Republicans in Congress will not agree to vote on raising the debt ceiling until the government has not implemented an austerity budget.The United States shackle in effect three years of deficit exceeding 10% and no concrete and credible program of spending cuts are envisaged. Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the IMF, the savings plan of 39 billion delivered on April 8 is "insufficient".
Barack Obama has set a goal of reducing the U.S. budget deficit of 4000 billion dollars over the next twelve years. It sets the fiscal deficit to 2.5% of GDP in 2015, and wants it to be achieved by three-quarters of declines in spending.Objectives, but no clear way to reach them: during a visit to Facebook, the president spoke reform fiscalité.Sans give too many details, he has to attack the tax breaks for the wealthiest Americans, plans to limit military spending and aid to agriculture, and cutting in the health program, yet very popular Medicare.
"The financial equivalent of a nuclear bomb"
What would happen if the U.S. could no longer meet their debt, as was the case for Greece, Ireland, or Portugal? It would be "the financial equivalent of a nuclear bomb ', warns Aaron Kohli, a specialist in Treasury bills at Nomura Securities. The global cataclysm is such that people do not."They must find a solution, they can not leave the financial world explode," he reassured one analyst, who notes that the financial markets show no signs of concern about the ability of U.S. authorities to agree.
David Wyss, chief economist at ratings agency Standard and Poor's, which recently threatened the U.S. triple-A, not only the Treasury "may continue to operate until August (through accounting manipulations, Ed), leaving the time in Congress to agree, but again, in case of emergency, the government "will pass the debt service as a priority."
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A month and a half after the start of hostilities, the war in Libya has already cost 50 million euros to France. Gerard Longuet, the defense minister, that figure dropped Tuesday before the Committee on National Defence, says Les Echos.
The invoice missiles fired by fighter planes is around 30 million euros each cruise missile costing nearly a million. We add the operating costs of aircraft: the flight time of a Rafale is estimated at 40,000 euros and time response of the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle to 50,000 euros. Premiums paid to military also weigh on the bill, amounting to nearly 10 million.
The war is not over and the cost of operations should increase if the conflict stalled. But whatever the final cost of these unforeseen expenses will be funded.The budget of the Ministry of Defence was counting on 900 million euros for external operations in 2011, an amount identical to that of 2010, with approximately $ 500 million for Afghanistan. Of this amount, 630 million euros have been budgeted and 50 million are expected from the UN, says Les Echos. Thus, 220 million are already short and we must add the cost of expenditures in Libya. Part of the money spent in Libya are at present drawn from the budgets of the military trainings that may not be sufficient, however. Time and budget constraints, the sum could be more difficult to refinance.
To international funding Libyan rebels
The "contact group" on Libya has agreed Thursday on the creation of a mechanism of financial support to insurgents fighting against the regime of Muammar Gaddafi.The special fund will be temporary "operational within the next few weeks," said the head of French diplomacy Alain Juppe, after a group meeting in Rome. "The temporary funding mechanism set in Doha is now well defined" so as to be "operational in the coming weeks," said the French minister told reporters.
After the announcement of the participation of the United States, France "also define" the height of his contributions soon, he added.
The National Transitional Council (CNT) formed by the insurgent wants to be granted loans totaling two to three billion dollars to cover its needs for food and medicines, to ensure essential services in areas it controls and to pay salaries.About 250 million has "already" been collected for humanitarian aid to Libya, said the Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini.
This request has so far been examined carefully in the Western embassies, particularly because of legal obstacles that the Rome meeting was intended to circumvent.
The administration formed by the insurgents is far recognized only by France, Italy and Qatar.
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The CAC 40 remains in the green for the eighth straight time. At closing, the index in Paris ahead of 0.05% to 4108.77 points. As in Japan on Monday morning as investors welcomed the announcement by U.S. President Barack Obama, death of Osama bin Laden. The leader of al-Qaida was killed Sunday by the United States, during a commando operation in Pakistan. But the positive trend has eroded over the meeting.
Of the other European places, same story, including the Frankfurt stock exchange rises from 0.18% to 7527.64 points. The London Stock Exchange remained closed for holiday.
In addition to boosting the morale of the operators, this new direct consequence of the dollar to rise against the euro. The single currency was worth 1.4771 dollars around 5:15 that French time (at time of announcement), against 1.4864 dollars shortly before 3 o'clock.Similarly, oil prices, affected by the bounce of the greenback fell. Precious metals onte unscrewed, just like the money that has dropped 10% to 42.58 dollars per ounce, or gold, which fell to 1546 dollars against a previous record of 1575.79 dollars. Trends that were chastened during the meeting.
17.30, the euro resumed height against the greenback, and was worth 1.4883 dollars against 1.4808 dollars on Friday night.
Responsible macroeconomic news
In this context, the markets will take time, however, to analyze key indicators of the day. The growth in manufacturing activity in the euro zone accelerated more than expected in April, according to a second estimate of the PMI index published on Monday. The index rebounded to 58 points, against 57.5 points in March, the company said Markit.In France, growth in activity in manufacturing worsened last month, reaching its fastest pace for fifteen months, with beneficial effects on employment, according to Markit.
In the U.S., construction spending gained momentum, knowing their strongest growth in 11 months, 1.4%, according to data released Monday by the Commerce Department. In contrast, growth of manufacturing activity slowed for the second consecutive month in April, but less than expected, according to the index of industrial purchasing managers released Monday. This index, calculated by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), stood at 60.4 in April after already slowed to 61 guaranteed approval cash loans.2 in March, against 61.4 in February.The 72 analysts and economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast an index to 60.0.
Values to follow
Altran: + 3.38% to 5.51 euros
Specialist in High Technology Council has exceeded its goals in the first quarter by signing up at double-digit sales (to 387.7 million, +10.1% at constant perimeter) and announced the sale of all its subsidiaries in Brazil.The group also said to anticipate a significant improvement in current operating profit in the first half compared to the same period last year.
Trigano: + 4.60% to 25.25 euros
For the period September 2010 to February 2011, the specialist for caravans and camper vans, achieved an operating profit of 14.7 million euros, against a loss of 0.8 million a year earlier.
Renault: +0.41% to 41.31 euros, Peugeot: 0.72% to 30.88 euros
Renault and Peugeot stand up well despite the announcement of a drop in their registrations by 19.1% and 21.1% respectively in April.
PPR: – 0.12% to 120.60 euros
The group will launch a friendly takeover Volcom priced at $ 24.50 per share.This friendly offer values the company at 516 million euros.
Technip: – 1.261% to 75.20 euros
The group has won a contract worth 100 million euros for the engineering and equipment supply and construction assistance for the Horizon Oil Sands Project in Canada, according to a statement released Monday.
Vinci – 0.52% to 44.86 euros
The group wants to increase the share of concessions in its revenues and will therefore be a candidate for the privatization of regional airports when it is valid, said Xavier Huillard, CEO of construction and concessions, in an interview published Monday by Les Echos.The group will hold its general assembly in early afternoon today.
Fimalac: 30.45 euro balance
The group will take a 40% stake in Auguri Production, which organizes performances of several famous singers, such as Matthieu Chedid, Vanessa Paradis and Thomas Dutronc, according to a statement released Monday.
GDF Suez will publish its first quarter sales this afternoon.
After market: Areva, CAM, GFI Informatique, Steria and Bollore will publish their quarterly earnings.