Public debt: France must convince in 2012 and beyond
Good student, but must continue its efforts. It is, in short, the message delivered by the rating agency Fitch in France. She confirmed the debt rating "AAA", the best possible, with stable outlook. The French government has taken "a series of measures", says the agency, "which have improved the outlook for public finances." And mention the pension reform, or the draft law in fixing the principle of balance of public finances.
"However, these efforts must be extended to stabilize and then reduce the level of debt of France, which was the end of 2010 to 81.7% of gross domestic product (GDP)," warns Maria Malas-Mroueh, responsible scoring countries at Fitch. A number of risk still hovers in effect on the financial health of the state. Starting with 2012, a major election year.It should not, Fitch warns that the budget skids on the bottom of the presidential election. Especially since the forecast growth in the medium term Bercy (+2.5% per year) are considered "optimistic."
It should not, the agency said that the newly elected unleash the flange to the public finances in 2013. Instead, the agency left little choice to the government that emerges from the polls: "We expect the 2011 budget will meet its objectives (a deficit of 5.7%, Ed), but further efforts are needed to reduce the deficit to 3% of GDP in 2013, as agreed. " Debt levels will then stabilize at a level higher than before the crisis, reducing the flexibility to cope with future crises.
Note "under pressure"
In the medium term, Fitch added that "the memo from France could be under pressure (read: be revised downward, Ed) if the competitiveness of France was deteriorating again and if the position of France was weakening." The agency plans and the current account balance, ie the difference between money coming in and who leaves the territory, will remain negative in 2011 and 2012, approximately 2% of GDP. Fitch impels France to further reduce its "structural rigidities".
Despite these black spots, the Hexagon rest for now, said the agency, a "healthy and diversified economy," equipped "social institutions, civil and effective policies." He added: "financial flexibility reflect its status as a major issuer of sovereign benchmark in the eurozone. Clearly, the markets like, so far, take on France.