The cloud of ash does not jam recovery
"Dust volcanic paralysis airport dangerous for the economy." The Confederation of Small and Medium Enterprises (CGPME) became concerned Monday that could have consequences for European sky empty of planes. Dramatization? CGPME quick to point out a little further in his text that only SMEs "whose activity is immediately dependent on air transport" are currently affected.
If paralysis continues, the slow recovery of the economy will she threatened? "If this situation persists, all French SMEs encounter difficulties," worries CGPME. Everything depends on the duration of the flight ban imposed much of European airspace. "The problem is simple: the shock will be there temporarily or not?" Says Philippe Waechter, head of economic research at Natixis."For now, all this is annoying but does not call into question the economic recovery."
"A crisis of this type can be analyzed as attacks or an outbreak, however, significant events that have little overall economic impacts," said Nicolas Bouzou for its part, an economist at Aster. Especially since the paralysis of European airspace should not have a huge impact on trade between Europe and the rest of the world, according to the Economist: "80% of goods moved by boat. And the businessmen will still meet in videoconferencing payday loan instant. "
Attacks and pandemic
The situation is somewhat reminiscent of the paralysis attacks of Sept. 11, which at the time, had greatly affected the airline."This event has changed the behavior vis-?-vis the air, but the current environment is extremely different," relativize Philippe Waechter. "Today, if the ban is lifted, all restarts as before." September 11 has also not necessarily have any impact on the economy, beyond transport. "It is very difficult to detect traces of attacks on the World Trade Center on economic growth," said Nicolas Bouzou.
More recently, influenza H1N1 has raised fears the worst. Especially because of the flight ban could be decided to limit the spread of the virus. The worst-case scenarios developed while anticipating a decline in U.S. GDP by 1.5% year over year. Impact due to paralysis of all types of transport, the cancellation of sporting and cultural events and absenteeism rates of about 30 to 40% in companies.In comparison, the ash cloud would block more than 150,000 French nationals abroad. For a limited time.
See also:
"Economic consequences cascade
"Volcano: expected improvement by the end of the week